On August 22nd, I started to post a few charts on the "Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Room" within Tradingview.com, to share some of the patterns and trading opportunities I follow across Forex pairs, metals and indices - Here is a link that reviews recent entries: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#5eHLst... .
In essence, $CADCHF started out to produce signals on the predictive/forecasting model I use to screen potential plays. I often use a multi-overlay approach using either standard patterns (typically, Bat, and patterns), or proprietary patterns (Euclid, Janus, Great White or Deep ) - Most recently, I decided to look into basic cycles, as well as alternate plotting methodology (look into our recent discussion on T.S. Hennessy, if you are interested in much simpler wave count methodology with a good predictive outcome).
At this point of the development, I would look for a BACA < 1-3-5 Line (BACA stands for a Breaking Across, AND Closing Across, something that Buboo Bains on Facebook's Giraffe Room came up with - The greater-than/lower-than sign is directional).
At the time of this writing, price has rolled as expected per this pattern's anticipated behavior. The chart demonstrates an entry level at 0.83262 at Point-5, which is soon to be re-visited.
Other features of the chart are two distinct, abysmal targets, which have been defined by the predictive/forecasting model, namely:
1 - TG-1 = 0.81731 - 18 AUG 2014
2 - TG-Lo = 0.81113 - 18 AUG 2014
Each target is colored-defined as YELLOW to reflect a moderate probability of getting hit, and RED as lower probability of getting hit. TG-1 is a quantitative (i.e.: numerical) target as opposed to TG-Lo (qualitative target), to reflect that TG-1 will likely act as a new and significant R/S level for this coming and future price action, while the TG-Lo will act as a probable reversal level - This is how precise the model has been with prior predictions (i.e.: defining direction and its strength) and forecasting (i.e.: defining R/S and target levels).
If interested in patterns ("WW"), I recommend that you query this advanced market geometric pattern and read up on your own, although I remain very much available to offer some clarification wherever need be.
Simply note that WW have a much more aqueous (i.e.: outer points in X, A, C and D) than the rigid , Bat or (whose A-B-C cores are the variables based on their B's variable positioning). By virtue of its ability to expand from a mere 1-2-4-5 , the various offered through Points 5-prime and 5-second via the hinging action at Point-3 and Point-1, respectively, makes this a quite intriguing, advanced patterns.
Now, let's see if BACA < 1-3-5 is really occurring, or we are simply being lured into a fake pattern.
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
What I do though is to spend a considerable amount of time bringing up visual and technical tools that would support the predictions and forecasts, which the trader could use to verify on their own how the two agree, in support of the forecast. The following is what I use most:
1 - Model - To define a trading opportunity
2 - Advanced patterns (some are proprietary, some are known classic patterns. Of the classic ones, i focus on Bats, Sharks and 5-0 patterns). Other more obscure geometries are basic symmetries and core resistance I use from time to time.
3 - Internal to the patterns (say a Crab is building its last C-D leg), I look into more advanced pattern development, such as Wolfe Waves, or even Elliott Wave's Diagonal Triangles
4 - Recently, so as to add a layer of verification, I have turned to Elliott Wave wave counting as an added visual in the price field.
5 - Most recently, I have looked into T.S. Hennessy alternate and new Elliott Wave counting methodology, which leads to improved predictive and forecasting power (but that's my opinion as I continue to verify this against my own model, although it is not able to define quite well the values when compared to my model).
I am not sure whether this reply helps at all. I put a lot of time in verifying the probability of a price action, and it's through layers of different disciplines that I see as the best and safest way to do it, IMHO.
I had a similar thought process. I am quite clear from your step 2 to 5 as you mentioned above, i would appreciate it greatly if you could clarify your step 1. You said, Model - to define a trading opportunity? Isn't step 2-5 all part of a model? or Are you referring to your proprietary tools that you used on mt4 which serve as an initial opportunity screening to identify trade ideas?
i would love to have a conversation and my skype is gengchen if it is easier for us to talk than chat here.
In my case, I can say that I trust my system based on the comparisons I have made, but it does not make me a better trader. Execution and money management are far superior skills. I can tell you that even if I put my method in the hands of another trader, the outcome would still be different, because of the human factor. Somehow, we as human beings manage to screw things up.
I am here because of the philosophy and overall direction of TradingView.com, which attracted me to act as one of their moderator. My role here is to be part of the supportive team, encouraging new and veteran traders to look at the market in different ways. I am definitely not a conventional trader, as remarked by my former students, but I can help others look at the price field in occult and weird ways, so as to derive other data and information that would otherwise have gone missing. That;s all I can say about my being a different trader. Not better. Just different.
Feel free to chime in here anytime you'd like. Post chart, suggesting and even counter-arguments to my analyses. The targets I define are based on a model that I devised. So, even the the model seems to operate out of a "mind of its own", I will still bear the responsibility of being wrong whenever it should fail, and being glad whenever it maintains its ability to predict market trends and strength, as forecasting R/S, reversal and targets.
Thanks for your in depth reply.
I appreciate it greatly your intention and efforts to help out other traders. What I am mostly interested in learning from you here is to efficiently screen out high probability trade setups, which you seem to have a good model at work. We don't mind purchasing your model as a tool. Or Have you talked to tradingview to commercialize your model (develop as a plugin with tradingview, traders could pay to subscribe) so that everybody could benefit from your IP and become independent traders themselves.
I prefer to use it to offer free signals by providing analysis which I support with the use of known patterns and other technical tools, while keeping the model hidden in the core of the directional bias - I very much appreciate your recommendation, though.
In regards to screening out high-probability set-ups, may I ask you what indicator you feel most comfortable using, and which of these do you use for your trading information in terms of assessing direction, strength, ... etc?
I use motivewave charting software to scan for harmonic patterns and then i take the similar approach to apply Wave analysis and sometimes simple candle stick patterns. With regard to T.S. Hennessy's method, i read his book but still had difficulty pin it down, do you have some notes of how exactly you count waves according to his method.