4xForecaster
Short

A Wolve Wave Reversal Signal At 5-Prime? | $CAD $CHF #forex

FX:CADCHF   Canadian Dollar/Swiss Franc
467 15 4
Friends,

On August 22nd, I started to post a few charts on the "Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Room" within Tradingview.com, to share some of the patterns and trading opportunities I follow across Forex pairs, metals and indices - Here is a link that reviews recent entries: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#5eHLst6YxeVqGlaO .

In essence, $CADCHF started out to produce bearish signals on the predictive/forecasting model I use to screen potential plays. I often use a multi-overlay approach using either standard patterns (typically, Bat, Shark and 5-0 patterns), or proprietary patterns (Euclid, Janus, Great White or Deep Shark) - Most recently, I decided to look into basic Elliott Wave cycles, as well as alternate Elliott Wave plotting methodology (look into our recent discussion on T.S. Hennessy, if you are interested in much simpler wave count methodology with a good predictive outcome).

At this point of the Wolfe Waves development, I would look for a BACA < 1-3-5 Line (BACA stands for a Breaking Across, AND Closing Across, something that Buboo Bains on Facebook's Giraffe Room came up with - The greater-than/lower-than sign is directional).

At the time of this writing, price has rolled as expected per this pattern's anticipated behavior. The chart demonstrates an entry level at 0.83262 at Point-5, which is soon to be re-visited.

Other features of the chart are two distinct, abysmal targets, which have been defined by the predictive/forecasting model, namely:

1 - TG-1 = 0.81731 - 18 AUG 2014

and

2 - TG-Lo = 0.81113 - 18 AUG 2014


Each target is colored-defined as YELLOW to reflect a moderate probability of getting hit, and RED as lower probability of getting hit. TG-1 is a quantitative (i.e.: numerical) target as opposed to TG-Lo (qualitative target), to reflect that TG-1 will likely act as a new and significant R/S level for this coming and future price action, while the TG-Lo will act as a probable reversal level - This is how precise the model has been with prior predictions (i.e.: defining direction and its strength) and forecasting (i.e.: defining R/S and target levels).

If interested in Wolfe Waves patterns ("WW"), I recommend that you query this advanced market geometric             pattern and read up on your own, although I remain very much available to offer some clarification wherever need be.

Simply note that WW have a much more aqueous envelope (i.e.: outer points in X, A, C and D) than the rigid Gartley , Bat or Butterfly (whose A-B-C cores are the variables based on their B's variable positioning). By virtue of its ability to expand from a mere 1-2-4-5 envelope , the various offered through Points 5-prime and 5-second via the hinging action at Point-3 and Point-1, respectively, makes this a quite intriguing, advanced patterns.

Now, let's see if BACA < 1-3-5 is really occurring, or we are simply being lured into a fake pattern.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
Midasfx
2 years ago
Hi, David, i am very interested in learning what software do you use to screen your trade setups? Do you screen it on Ninja or MT4 or other charting package. I am very interested in your model and would like to know more as I subscribe to similar tools that you use, Harmonic pattern, elliott wave, Wolfe Waves etc.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Midasfx
2 years ago
Hello @Midasfx - All I use is off of TradingView charting software. I do have multiple MT4 accounts (live and demo) where I use the same indicators, however, I do not let the indicators come through. What I have devised is a set of indicator-based methodology that helps me define the strength of the market, the trend, as well as define new and future R/S levels, and reversals. There is a bit of calculations done, but it is all outside of the price field. Unfortunately, this is all proprietary and cannot be shared.

What I do though is to spend a considerable amount of time bringing up visual and technical tools that would support the predictions and forecasts, which the trader could use to verify on their own how the two agree, in support of the forecast. The following is what I use most:

1 - Model - To define a trading opportunity
then
2 - Advanced patterns (some are proprietary, some are known classic patterns. Of the classic ones, i focus on Bats, Sharks and 5-0 patterns). Other more obscure geometries are basic symmetries and core resistance I use from time to time.
3 - Internal to the patterns (say a Crab is building its last C-D leg), I look into more advanced pattern development, such as Wolfe Waves, or even Elliott Wave's Diagonal Triangles
4 - Recently, so as to add a layer of verification, I have turned to Elliott Wave wave counting as an added visual in the price field.
5 - Most recently, I have looked into T.S. Hennessy alternate and new Elliott Wave counting methodology, which leads to improved predictive and forecasting power (but that's my opinion as I continue to verify this against my own model, although it is not able to define quite well the values when compared to my model).

I am not sure whether this reply helps at all. I put a lot of time in verifying the probability of a price action, and it's through layers of different disciplines that I see as the best and safest way to do it, IMHO.

David
Reply
Midasfx 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi, Thanks for your comments and insights.
I had a similar thought process. I am quite clear from your step 2 to 5 as you mentioned above, i would appreciate it greatly if you could clarify your step 1. You said, Model - to define a trading opportunity? Isn't step 2-5 all part of a model? or Are you referring to your proprietary tools that you used on mt4 which serve as an initial opportunity screening to identify trade ideas?

i would love to have a conversation and my skype is gengchen if it is easier for us to talk than chat here.

Regards
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Midasfx
2 years ago
Hi, @Midasfx - The model is a screening methodology I have developed using standard indicators with some prop geometric overlays. So, yes, it is proprietary, but I do not mind sharing the signals at all. Some traders have remained under the impression that I have been doing this as a preamble to selling some MT4 software, but this is not the case. I did teach a course that looked at patterns, occult geometries and RSI-based strategies, but I am too busy being split at work and charting to entertain anything else at the moment. I do appreciate the invitation to connect, but here too, I am afraid I might not be able to do so as I remain under certain time constraints - I hope you would not take this as a refusal to connect. If anything, I like to keep the conversations public, for the sake of continue to share whatever level of information other traders might learn across these exchanges, but also to keep myself and my intention honest in the eye of the public. I have been trading since 1997, and after many paid fees to the "school of hard knocks" through lessons, software, membership, forums and all sorts of good and bad experience, I know that most traders who have been at it for quite some time have become wary and suspicious of anyone coming up with a "better than" system.

In my case, I can say that I trust my system based on the comparisons I have made, but it does not make me a better trader. Execution and money management are far superior skills. I can tell you that even if I put my method in the hands of another trader, the outcome would still be different, because of the human factor. Somehow, we as human beings manage to screw things up.

I am here because of the philosophy and overall direction of TradingView.com, which attracted me to act as one of their moderator. My role here is to be part of the supportive team, encouraging new and veteran traders to look at the market in different ways. I am definitely not a conventional trader, as remarked by my former students, but I can help others look at the price field in occult and weird ways, so as to derive other data and information that would otherwise have gone missing. That;s all I can say about my being a different trader. Not better. Just different.

Feel free to chime in here anytime you'd like. Post chart, suggesting and even counter-arguments to my analyses. The targets I define are based on a model that I devised. So, even the the model seems to operate out of a "mind of its own", I will still bear the responsibility of being wrong whenever it should fail, and being glad whenever it maintains its ability to predict market trends and strength, as forecasting R/S, reversal and targets.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
Midasfx 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David,
Thanks for your in depth reply.

I appreciate it greatly your intention and efforts to help out other traders. What I am mostly interested in learning from you here is to efficiently screen out high probability trade setups, which you seem to have a good model at work. We don't mind purchasing your model as a tool. Or Have you talked to tradingview to commercialize your model (develop as a plugin with tradingview, traders could pay to subscribe) so that everybody could benefit from your IP and become independent traders themselves.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Midasfx
2 years ago
@Midasfx - At the risk of sounding self-inflating, I have decided to not sell the model or make it available by software - One trading firm that develops its own software asked me to submit it for commercial ends. That was following a bigger offer I received from on inquiring trader whom I know to teach large groups of individuals.

I prefer to use it to offer free signals by providing analysis which I support with the use of known patterns and other technical tools, while keeping the model hidden in the core of the directional bias - I very much appreciate your recommendation, though.

In regards to screening out high-probability set-ups, may I ask you what indicator you feel most comfortable using, and which of these do you use for your trading information in terms of assessing direction, strength, ... etc?

David

David
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Midasfx 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi, David,

I use motivewave charting software to scan for harmonic patterns and then i take the similar approach to apply Wave analysis and sometimes simple candle stick patterns. With regard to T.S. Hennessy's method, i read his book but still had difficulty pin it down, do you have some notes of how exactly you count waves according to his method.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Midasfx
2 years ago
@Midasfx, the easiest method I have been able to apply is to approach the chart in decreasing orders of degrees.

First and foremost, you have to recognize that in the highest degree where you wish to trade (say, you want to trade at a H4 level), you need to look at where you stand in relation to the entire price action at the next higher timeframe, say using a DAILY.

Next, from this DAILY overview, you need to ask yourself: Are you at the beginning, middle, or end of an impulse?

If nearing the end of an impulse, then is it the fourth wave of wave 5?
- I use my proprietary patterns as a cheat-cheat to know that I am nearing the end of an impulse, but you could use also a commercial pattern-recognition software as well

If so, you can now count at the next level down (i.e.: back to your original H4 timeframe of interest) to get the finer details.

Say that you start at a primary degree, then count 1-2-3-A-B-4C, then next count should be heading in the same direction and mark you first wave of the next degree DOWN count, right were your 4C wave of the first count terminated, and so on and so forth.

Remember that this method is interested in looking for swing trade opportunities as price approach a probable reversal level. As I mentioned before, I use my predictive/forecasting model as a way to know that I am nearing a reversal, then I overlay a prop pattern (I have several of such patterns: Janus, Euclid, Great White, Deep Shark, but any of the conventional patterns would do: I would focus on Bat, Shark and 5-0 patterns).

As you know you are approaching the end of a long impulse or the end of a correction within Wave-C, then start peeling that last leg down and forward.

Is this making sense?

Let the frustration build up, if it remains still too obscure. It means that your brain is crackling with new information and it's breaking up walls for more of that new space. Then enjoy the smell of fresh paint once you start getting it.

Let me know if that works for you.

David
Reply
Midasfx 4xForecaster
2 years ago
what you explained is no different from tradional wave count, could you explain how is T.S Hennessy's count different? Thanks for your in depth description.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Midasfx
2 years ago
Hello @Midasfx _ I must not have conveyed the idea very well, as Hennessy's wave count is radically different from traditional wave count. So, let me see if I can do better here.

First, let me offer a link to the eBook where all the information is found:
- http://www.sponser.co.il/ForumFiles/0f42bf05-bbb1-4570-9d5e-b9f28e87d412.pdf

Second, allow me to cut/paste the single rule:
"In Every 5th Wave and in Every C Wave, the 4th Wave WILL have a B Wave which will set New Trend Price Territory."

... as well as enumerate once more the sequence in which this rule is applied:

Starting at the beginning of the 5th Wave of an impulse (very importatn) or starting at the Wave-C of a correction, define the following points:

1-2-3-4A-4B-4C-1-2-3-4A-4B-4C-1-2-3-4A-4B-4C ...

... And finally, let me list the links of charts, which this eBook uses as its visual supports:

1 - $GBPJPY-M5:
http://newelliottwaverule.org/diagram/090930-091007-gbp-jpy-m5-5th-wave-count-mu3.gif

2 - HD-M30:
http://newelliottwaverule.org/diagram/091014-091103-home-depot-m30-c-wave-count-mu3.gif

3 - DJ-M30:
http://newelliottwaverule.org/diagram/091204-091208-djia-m1-wave-count-mu3.png

(Source: http://newelliottwaverule.org/diagrams/)

Now, take a look at all the charts provided and see how the wave count has one most defining and distinctive element, which is that of the 4A-4B-4C segment of the 1-2-3-4A-4B-4C-1-2-3-4A-4B-4C-1-2-3-... repetitive module.

Herein, you should be able to note that once you are at the end of Wave-3, a A-B-C zig-zag defines the entire 4th Wave, with B being LOWER than the ending of the 3rd Wave.

THE ENDING OF THE 3RD WAVE BEING SURPASSED BY INTERNAL WAVE-B OF THE CORRECTIVE 4TH WAVE IS THE DEFINING SINGULARITY THAT DISTINGUISHES IT FROM THE STANDARD ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT, WHICH ALLOWS THIS METHODOLOGY TO RENDER ALL OTHER EXCEPTIONS NULL AND INCONSEQUENTIAL.

(I highlighted the top, as this is the most important feature of this methodology)

One BIG clue which is NOT well emphasized in the text is HOW TO SINGLE OUT THE 3RD WAVE.

In essence, the 3rd wave is really easy to single out when you start counting from the beginning end of an impulse by simply looking for a trendline-breaking event. What I mean by this is that, if you look at every single 4A-4B-4C, you well see that they tend to send 4C way off and away in a counter-trend from the 3rd Wave in a way that makes it stick out, hence his implied rule:

"If You Can “See” It, It's a “C” "

As a visual trader, this alone gives me a very good handle as to how to situate myself from the beginning of the impulse forward.

I hope this helps.


David

Let me know if you have any question.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
QUICK NOTE: @Midasfx - I have just finished writing a long explanation of the methodology I use to define my risk. Sort of a game theory practicum in which I define the application of risk management to my trading, using very simple and approachable methods, such as the use of Fibonacci numbers.

Here is the link:

https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#5eHLst6YxeVqGlaO

Hope this shed more light on how I do things - Caveat here is that what I am revealing is NOT the predictive/forecasting system, which is an important indicator of the direction, strength, R/S definition and reversal forecast levels. However, you will see how I decided to apply the Hennessy system as an overlay - Hope you enjoy it. Feel free to contact me with any question.

David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Here is a visual example of my methodology - A very approachable and user-friendly composite of a simple A-B-C wave count relative to trendline breaks, counted forward towards a predefine Fib level from a larger timeframe - Easy enough?


EXAMPLE OF DAVID ALCINDOR'S HYBRID USE OF BASIC GEOMETRY, HENNESSY COUNT AND FIBONACCI LEVELS:
snapshot




Let me know if I need to clarify. Feel free to pass along if you like it. Here too, credit to author is the cool thing to do - Much appreciated.

David Alcindor
Reply
lovely.guy.589
2 years ago
i put sell stop now trade active
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO lovely.guy.589
2 years ago
Hello @lovely.guy.589 - Be sure to plan your own trade and trade your own plan - My discussions and charting are for educational use only - David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Hi David, Was wondering if you think this pair needs a revisit. I think the bearish movement may resume soon.
Might resume Bearish Movement soon. #CADCHF
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