aleIas
Long

Long Brent @ 45.72/44.54 tgt 48.30/50.50 (CBV2016)

ICEEUR:BRNV2016   BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES (OCT 2016)
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13
205 2
Possibly the price has reached its Daily Cycle Low on Friday, July 22.
Expecting rebound to 50.50 in the first decade of August.
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First buy limit activated @ 45.72 (DMA200)
Another buy limit @ 44.54 (162% fibo of wave C of W formation / major weekly support)
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Rationale:
MA200 reached (Daily close confirmation)
Diagonal triangle formed, Bearish wave likely completed
(Weak) Bullish Price/Oscillator Divergence + buy area reached (based on previous DCLs)
Daily Sentiment Index @ 35% bulls
Expected DCL on July 21-26
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Daily close below 44.00 next week invalidates this idea.
First warning sign if daily close is below DMA200 or 46.90 resistance stands.
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Safe trades!
Jul 26
Order cancelled: 2nd buylimit move @ 44.83
Jul 27
Comment: Final buylimit @ 43.72
Jul 28
Trade active: Preparing for take-off. Tgt adjustments 46/48
Jul 29
Comment: Knife catching roadmap for current preferred scenario
Aug 01
Trade active: Well, averaged down to 44.23. Fridays' move looks like a corrective one, thus expecting at least one more impulse to the south. Planning to get rid of some longs @ 44-45 first and then we'll see.
Aug 04
Trade active: Well, have 6 long entries at present avg @ 43.61
Blue scenario preferred: thus it makes sense to fix profit in blue box
TP1 44.04 TP2 44.53 TP3 45.08
Closed all remaining longs @ 45.41, I am still bullish, but there is a good chance the 4-days move was a part of Blue scenario targeting new lows
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One more long @ 42.65) Continuing to add to long position
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