YaKa

Cacao - Trade - Short 3% at 2942 Stop 3020

ICEUSA:CC1!   Cocoa
212 23 5
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LEONES PRO
2 years ago
good entry!
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YaKa PRO LEONES
2 years ago
Yes. even a little size as 3% which means nothing in daily risk can make 30bp... it adds up... could go lower a bit.
+1 Reply
LEONES PRO YaKa
2 years ago
30bp? what do you mean?. I think cocoa will reach 2400 easily
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YaKa PRO LEONES
2 years ago
short 3% on something that went down 10% > 30bp profit.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP YaKa
2 years ago
1%/100 = 1 bp
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LEONES PRO YaKa
2 years ago
sorry 3% of what?
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YaKa PRO LEONES
2 years ago
3% of your aum (asset under management).
that is the sizing...

Note:
- The way I manage the portfolio is aiming at achieving 15/25% while not losing 5% per year..
- on the cacao because the vol is huge, 3% size was enough... 30bp here, 30bp there... it adds up
+1 Reply
LEONES PRO YaKa
2 years ago
this is interesting. 15/25% looks good. So if you have investors for example 10 investors in your fund that went up let's assume 20% in a year how do you distribute the money at the end of the year?
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YaKa PRO LEONES
2 years ago
well - this is proprtional.. everyone gets 20% of what they invest.. let's move on.
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LEONES PRO YaKa
2 years ago
look at coffee too..
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YaKa PRO LEONES
2 years ago
check my post

last year went long at close to bottom and sold at 1.65.. then shorted 2.00 and took profit around here...

here i find it difficult to money manage.. if it is going to be a real slide (a slow one) we will have time to hook to it but here Coffee is still supported as long as above 1.55
+1 Reply
LEONES PRO YaKa
2 years ago
I see you point, that is true but moving steadly lower... Next week bonds and stocks I beleive will be interesting..looks like bonds are goingto fail and stocks resume the bull trend what do you think
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YaKa PRO LEONES
2 years ago
I think you are right on bunds falling and possibly treasuries/tlt too (locally)
I hope you are right on equities which i would like to short higher - But locally i have no clue (This is clearly a pivotal posture)
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LEONES PRO YaKa
2 years ago
nice thanks , working on sunday? :)
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YaKa PRO LEONES
2 years ago
Leones,

on the sp500.. the market is preparing something...

the amplitude of the moves is really increasing and stably large. it is easy for this market to move 40pts per day or 100pts per week... when you have that, the market is unlocked and can do big 1month moves. I can guarantee you the market can't go up 300pts up this month.. the contrary is technically not impossible.

I think there will be a large reset in the next few month... still in preparation... but i am not confortable being long now (other than tactically).
+1 Reply
LEONES PRO YaKa
2 years ago
esh15 above 2063.0 will be the confimation
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LEONES PRO LEONES
2 years ago
ESH2015at 2142.0 in two weeks I beleive
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YaKa PRO LEONES
2 years ago
i rarely use that word but let me tell you: IMPOSSIBLE

equities are not commodities.. certain things are respected...

ATR are rarely broken to the upside.. can happen but in other type of config...
monthly atr is 90.. going to be very diffuclt to break that mark.. i d love to though.. god hears you.
+1 Reply
YaKa PRO LEONES
2 years ago
Leones, you can trust me on that. there is no confirmation higher. Not vertically at least..
Vertically the market would be capped at 2115.
this cap increases 20pts per month.
so if the market decided to go ballistic up this week, it would be capped very quickly beyond your 2065 figure...
+1 Reply
LEONES PRO YaKa
2 years ago
what do you mean by no confirmation vertically? how do you define the 2115 cap, by the trendline?
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YaKa PRO LEONES
2 years ago
pm please
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YaKa PRO LEONES
2 years ago
would you buy that other than tactically?
it may move 80pts up, it would be nice...
but the downside is increasingly open.. and their has been enough upside failure to trigger a try the other side.
snapshot
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LEONES PRO YaKa
2 years ago
yes I understand they are all scared, this is why it will continue to move higher! but yes below 1960.0 will be a massacre
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