MaryJane
Long

Can this be true? Dez 2016: 75$ ???

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
1489 27 69
What do my tired eyes see?? Isn`t it a big bottom pattern in form of an exemplary H&S?
The RSI signs, that there is still a bit air on the downside. A dip back to the 38,2 fibo @ 41,92$ would be great. A dip to the 0,5 fibo normal and a dip to the 61,8 maximal.
If this level would be bought, a H&S is being formed. Prices above the neckline could interpreted as a BIG LONG SIGNAL.
I have illustrated the possible TPs in my chart
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Comment: Microstructure:
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Comment: We have reached the 38,2, no bottom in sight yet! 38,8$ - the 0,5 fibo could be the next target
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Comment: Overview Update:
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Comment: A H&S at that niveau would be nice for my analysis ;-9
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Comment: nice one!
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Comment: Oil reached an important action point -the 38,2 fibo and the former breakout niveau (blue) - at thhis point mythis main analysis started... - for those shorties which have missed the last train, this could be the so called "traders dream" where a new short position could be entered. Will oil trade sustainable above that niveau, the next fight will be the downtrendline @ 45.10$ . Trading above that level will open the next targets 45.63 and 47.13.
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Comment: next target 45.63 reached
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Comment:
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Comment: Today we have reached thze 61.8 fibo of the downswing 51,6-39,3. the open position is comfortable in the win - at presesnt ca. 7$! At this fibo level i exspect a corrective downmove - perhaps down to the "traders dream" - the 38,2 fibo from the movement ( 39,3-47,04) at 44,82$ - the former breakout level!
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Great analisys, thank you, that could be supported by the EUR/RUB movement. The RUB is a proxy of the oil indeed:

EURRUB


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yes it is true MaryJane....believe...believe lol lol. ;)
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I'm waiting for the oil to fall under 42, to buy oil & oil stocks, still it is possible that it will stay above 44,50.
What entry would you suggest if it stays above 44,50 and which signal to wait? Clear it is my decision at the end I would just like to know your opinion as I'm more fundamental less technical investor?
Thanks in advance.
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is it the last wave here ?
SELL STOP @ 45 for the last wave
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MaryJane Boumrah
like!!
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Boumrah MaryJane
i didn't enter this short,because it didn't break 45.and i enterred long
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Boumrah MaryJane
Long now
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That´s not a new trend unfortunately: it is double or triple corrective zig-zag from FEb lows. If there would be a third "zag", it should end somewhere at 57-62.

What I´m not sure if there would be a third "zag" or it is already too late and oil is already heading to 12-9 from it´s June peack?
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MaryJane captain_smollett
hey captain..have you got a Chart to illustrade this mentioned present ew-comnt?
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MaryJane MaryJane
count
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Aye!

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captain_smollett PRO captain_smollett
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3 and 4. Notice 4 has already passed 38.2. So, for me, the question is if there would be a double-top or not
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captain_smollett PRO captain_smollett
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Down and then up or just down? What makes me calm at the moment is that the current correction has a correction form and not the impulse =) I mean: as far as my EW knowledge goes, if there would be a serious fall, it should start with an impulse but currently Daily chart is a whipsaw...
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MaryJane captain_smollett
oh, old Chart :-) https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CB1%2521/Cg6LiC7v-BRENT-WITH-BIG-SHORTSIGNAL/
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MaryJane MaryJane
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MaryJane MaryJane
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CB1%2521/jrjnloND-Several-ways-to-reach-the-TP1-45/
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MaryJane MaryJane
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CL1%2521/k84ja2VE-Here-is-the-exspected-Dead-Cat-Bounce/
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MaryJane captain_smollett
..thx....but the wave 5 is unrealistic..isn`t it? Oilprice @ 1.11$ ?
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Aye. In theory, W3 is not the shortest, therefore, W5 will be short, probably to 61.8 Fibo... If so, then it gives the figure we want.
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I have been thinking about the possibility of this pattern ever since it hit 51, though I do not trade oil yet.
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I think we are approaching the end of the correction from 27 bottom to 50 top. This cyclic lines and the 0,38 fib time point to these days. I think we have one more down leg and then it will start a new period.
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Hot my stop lose ,and enterred Short https://www.tradingview.com/x/BhBdtMH4/
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Boumrah Boumrah
sorry,mean Hit my stop lose ,and enterred Short
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I totally agreed with this long term view ! buy the dips guys ;) !!!
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Excellent analysis as always! I am looking for prices to retrace to the .786 of the past years overall range and beleve next year will likely see another fall. Good trading to you and fabulous charts!!! You are busy!
Oil - continued consolidation
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September - October contract ?? ... mine will expiry soon lol
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hello,how do you see dax now?
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