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Crude: Towards 51.54 or a rejection of the figure?

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
The Crude is currently in a pennant , with 51.54 as an objective, and 50.14 as a primary objective. It was trading near its low border with a valid evening star . Should the pattern lead to a breakout through the orange trend line , the pennant will be rejected, and the Crude Oil             will enter a bearish market with 40.26 as an objective, and 42.71 as a primary objective.

The daily Pivot Point is around 45.316. The daily support level 43.6 and 42.52. The daily resistance levels are around 46.39 and 48.1.
The current macroeconomic news increases the chances of lower prices on Oil. On the long run Iran is going to start exporting petroleum in few months, which will increase pressure on prices.
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