A Crude Awakening... (Take 2) $CL $WTI $SPX

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
1429 10 6
A deeper look at some of the reasoning behind this chart from earlier today:
Watching $104-$106 as area of resistance. Should it hold below a new breakout here, CL could be headed to the lower edge of the major triangle. Gotta comment on how interesting I thought it was where the breakout retraced to on the minor trend line. I guess that one was more important technically than my big bold trend line above!
DuncanParker DuncanParker
Thanks for the chart. I look to these etfs for additional guidance and analysis; $OIL, $USO, $XLE. MACD is also helpful.
Nice draw! Agree sym triangle break receives benefit of the doubt. Early 2011 horizontal resistance at ~114-115 is the thorn in the emergent rally's side here, critically hemming in momentum. No failure back into triangle supportive; inability to get it together post-break - even with heightened geopolitical anxiety - not supportive. Until 100 (back into triangle) or 115, tone remains neutral-bullish.
DuncanParker andrewunknown

Thanks AU(K) :) !

Yeah, fully agree with ya. When all these bull setups compound on top of each other the result is often self fulfilling. We do need to see $115 taken first and foremost. Looking like just a matter of time before that's in the rear-view mirror, imo. Cheers brother!
andrewunknown DuncanParker
Patience will be rewarded on this one, I'm sure. Not to seem simplistic, but so much hangs on the rhetoric around and the eventual fact (or not) of military incursion into Syria; but well-rooted risk management and the capacity to adapt quickly are major assets here - assets that we possess in abundance as the little guy. Trade'em wel!
DuncanParker andrewunknown
Amen, bro! I actually haven't pulled the trigger yet - I'm very bullish but waiting to go with over 115 or buy a retest at 106 or 100. I'm getting the inclination that this model is on her way, DZ style. http://youtu.be/3zavgk2_BJs :)
Great chart. Well done. If we do get rising crude oil to the upper end of this chart then this will be a severe head-wind to any stock market gains.
Wow - many thanks, Tim! Cheers, DP
DuncanParker DuncanParker
Btw - I'll be interested to see how the Energy space behaves in light of higher CL. Their margins don't change so one would assume it's bullish short term. That, combined with other commodities being lifted in a super cycle type setup a la 2008 could buoy homebuilders, etc. - that's the new Bernanke Put - stocks held up by commodity correlated sectors...
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