Crude Oil WTI - Target 44 - If global meltdown: 23 (log chart)

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
1328 10 12
OPEC did not cut outputs.
Global economy is still slowing down despite QE .
Price war - Saudis inflicting a lesson to non cooperative producing countries.
44 is target.
23 if something really goes wrong.
getting closer
Venezuela and Russia, along with Nigeria and Angola are already in recession will probably default on debt if prices are sustained in the 40's next year. Iran will also dip into further recession, but won't default, because sanctions will probably be lifted with a nuclear agreement.
CommoditiesTrader QuantitativeExhaustion
Very true. OPEC shot themselves in the foot. I still think this is the natural course of things, though - lower prices. We've been in a global disinflation/deflationary period since the recession. Prices will come down because there is not much demand. When emerging markets aren't growing, there is no growth in demand. When developed countries are struggling, there is no need for discretionary trips and such where oil would be in demand. Oil has been one of the only assets over the last few years to respond the way it should in terms of fundamentals.
+1 Reply
I totally agree here. I see another 2008 playing out. However, I think high yield oil corporate debt will come into play.
QuantitativeExhaustion CommoditiesTrader
What about oil rich government that need oil prices in the 70-80's to balance budgets?
Yes the low 40's seem possible and if so won't that make some interesting headlines (note if it hits the 20's as you possibly suggested that will bust most US oil companies not to mention almost everybody else in the oil game)
look4edge glennjoy1
US oil companies will never go bust, and if only one should left (even nationalized in AIG, GM style), it will go through and take over oil market, unlike "everybody else in the game"
It is oil war, yacine is right
another article: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-22/veteran-sp-futures-trader-i-am-100-confident-central-banks-are-buying-sp-futures
look4edge look4edge
of course, till there is oil on the planet or till it will come other profitable energy business
Is this kind of real QE deliberating cash? Consumers will have more cash left, goods will be produced cheeper (but not sold, deflation is not wanted), so lets spend, margins and prices will go up, maybe production could take off
Equities will be interesting after thanksgiving

btw. extremely punishing effect on russia, dangerous play, i would not blame saudis, they essentially are not willing to carry the oil market anymore, check

chart of the year: http://www.businessinsider.com/us-crude-oil-production-the-chart-of-the-year-2014-11
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