Tom_Killick

#CL1!-CRUDE- Seeing Long Term Target Hit- Will We Continue?

NYMEX:CL1!   LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
598 10 11
Traders,

UPDATE:We are hitting the long term target hit here. Will we continue to the further lows? Or will we bounce back up for the time being? If we do come back up again, I will be waiting for another opportunity to short again, nothing more.

When trading this it is worth watching USDCAD             with this trade, as it will inevitably move hard when Oil             breaks the 2009 lows (I suspect Oil             will grab a lot of momentum when it breaks the 2009 lows because it will provide a rare technical opportunity to short Oil             off of high probability momentum .

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Thank you.

Best of luck
Tom
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Realisto_FX PRO
10 months ago
I just finished some studies about macro outlook :
Macro Outlook : Crude Oil vs Fed Funds Rate
Reply
Tom_Killick PRO Realisto_FX
10 months ago
Yes, I think we're somewhat on the same page.

When I analysed this, I was interested in the mean reversion especially. I know hikes could change paradigm. I, myself, think we could get consolidation for some time until we have a "driving force"

Regards
Reply
tbuckle PRO
10 months ago
Hi Tom. So do you think the short is over and now up from here a bit (and if so to where) or more downside?
Reply
Tom_Killick PRO tbuckle
10 months ago
It could be. Impossible to know right now. It could have a pullback, and another short opportunity could arise. I'll have to update over time.

Tom
Reply
tbuckle PRO Tom_Killick
10 months ago
Thanks
Reply
GarryBartsch PRO
10 months ago
I see the chart like this and follow simple rules: don't sell at support/don't buy at resistance. The decline since 50 has been regular. Will price move up and then dive from resistance again? I don't know. But it's sitting near support and trade today was in a wide range as indicated by the wicks so this is no place to open new shorts.
snapshot

Interested to hear your take.
+1 Reply
Tom_Killick PRO GarryBartsch
10 months ago
Anyone opening new shorts here would need professional help to be honest.
Tom
Reply
GarryBartsch PRO Tom_Killick
10 months ago
Indeed, I like your candor and you and I agree. Barring an outright cataclysmic geopolitical even or currency crisis of some type we should NOT see oil move through this trend line with any force. The question is does oil move up to the resistance trend line ... and then what? We don't know but this channel seems well defined and it's best to trust what we see. My question should have been more specific: does this channel look accurate to you?
Reply
Tom_Killick PRO GarryBartsch
10 months ago
I'll post my take in a moment.

Regards
Reply
IndonesiaBankTrader
10 months ago
OIL
Reply
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