Yes I did a similar study on crude a month ago citing a target of 12-13 but to me that seemed too far. I know it can get there but wow I don’t have the balls to go in there as a full bear. I know the China crisis has hit and there is no knowing the extent of that meltdown and yes the US markets could be in a downturn to the bear phase. But 12 dollars…You know, humans are the worst judge of market outcomes. I will remember well what I said back on Nov 2014 (Oil is going up at 75 this is the bottom.) buying calls like a demon. Bought the calls back for pennies, OUCH! How could I be that wrong? The answer is having a bias that is based on ego! No#1 rule, Don’t ever brag about your position, it will bite you in the butt quicker than you can say China-Crude-Crisis!