Very bearish on crude oil from current levels here. Price action could move a bit higher again to the 53.64 level, but there are many objectives below to achieve in the next several weeks. A move lower should develop soon, and the main target would be 45.89 level. We also have a potential head and shoulders pattern setting up a bearish move ahead, which is pointing towards the 46.61 level. So that area seems highly likely by the end of February.
Trade active:
Price action moved higher to hit the 53.64 level as we suspected it would. Now looking for a bearish move to develop in the days ahead.
Comment:
The timeframe on this trade has extended, but our bearish conviction remains. No change...
Comment:
A break down through that 52.30 level will get price action moving swiftly to the downside...The support trend line will eventually break.
Comment:
The break through the support trend line/neck line happened at 52.30, and the drop lower that we were expecting happened as a result. The 47.59 level is the measured move objective. We believe it will be a lot lower eventually.
Comment:
Our analysis was correct with the head and shoulders and overall very bearish forecast, but it came a bit later than anticipated. That's ok though, because after remaining patient we got the move lower... Our revised bearish head and shoulders target is 47.59, but we have another target at 47.36 as well.
Trade closed: target reached:
Ok - the measured head and shoulders target has been met at the 47.49 level. There is another downside target level at 47.36, just below current levels, which we think will be achieved as well soon.
Comment:
Ok our 47.36 target level has now been hit. Nice trade for all of those who were patient with this one!