Monthly candle closed so here is an update.
COP having tagged the upper trendline of this long expanding pattern with an upper wicked candle has now slumped back to print a double wicked candle with bearish body through the 1.618 projection taken from the previous 3 pivots which will most likely prove to be a shakeout reversal top to collapse back down.
RSI is now very close to crossing back down below the upper band which would show bearish momentum.
I currently hold a 2024 ATM LEAP put bought when COP was @ $100 and the two 0.618 Fibonacci targets are a band from $39 to $44 that I would like to buy back my puts should price get there in time. There is also support in that area and with also the Fibonacci confluence it would be an area that will likely see a bounce.
A big collapse should be coming as this trend since the lows is a very overextended 416% move from the previous low also with USOIL overextended and overlaid on the chart. Arithmetic view gives a better perspective of just how wild this trend has been.
If it comes crashing down then the very low implied volatility at time of purchase should expand which will add value to my put.
COP is being written about as being one of the best buys in oil and energy currently as it appears to be topping out.
I would be surprised if there are many monthly candles with bullish bodies from herein.
Just to add, this 1.618 @ $58 is a long term 3 pivot projection taken from the lows, which I think will prove the entire price action above to be Distribution.
Not advice.
COP having tagged the upper trendline of this long expanding pattern with an upper wicked candle has now slumped back to print a double wicked candle with bearish body through the 1.618 projection taken from the previous 3 pivots which will most likely prove to be a shakeout reversal top to collapse back down.
RSI is now very close to crossing back down below the upper band which would show bearish momentum.
I currently hold a 2024 ATM LEAP put bought when COP was @ $100 and the two 0.618 Fibonacci targets are a band from $39 to $44 that I would like to buy back my puts should price get there in time. There is also support in that area and with also the Fibonacci confluence it would be an area that will likely see a bounce.
A big collapse should be coming as this trend since the lows is a very overextended 416% move from the previous low also with USOIL overextended and overlaid on the chart. Arithmetic view gives a better perspective of just how wild this trend has been.
If it comes crashing down then the very low implied volatility at time of purchase should expand which will add value to my put.
COP is being written about as being one of the best buys in oil and energy currently as it appears to be topping out.
I would be surprised if there are many monthly candles with bullish bodies from herein.
Just to add, this 1.618 @ $58 is a long term 3 pivot projection taken from the lows, which I think will prove the entire price action above to be Distribution.
Not advice.
Comment:
COP earnings coming up this week. Previous earnings have not really seen much price activity but I think because the trend is reversing there may be a dump this time. Obviously that would be helped if USOIL breaks its corrective pattern to the downside.
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Priority trades, round the clock updates and a 1 hour technical video per week 😼.
Get the "heads up" at critical moments - don't lose your shirt.
$50 per month 👍🏻.
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