Oil prices have been plunging for a year now ( since the formation of the head and shoulder pattern last summer) and I think the trend will continue for a few weeks considering the uncertainty over the Chinese growth demand being weaker in a market already oversupplied.
Eliot Wave analysis:
Short-term structure:
As the 3`rd wave of the intermediate degree ( yellow line ) is extended, the 1´st and the 5´th waves tend to be iqual. Hence, as the first wave measures aprox. 4,30, the price target for the fifth wave should be expected at the 10,70 price level where it will stay a bit longer. Expect the trend to accumulate in this trading range it has lingering the first half of 2015.
Intermediate term out-look:
ETF Crude Oil has been hovering this year ( late January and, especially March low) at approximately 11$ level, closely to 6 year lows. This could be a significant support line from wich crude will build a corrective upmove to the 20-22 level where the 4´th wave of the lesser degree developed on its way down.
Conclusion:
Crude will stay low for now but poised to turn up in the intermediate term.
One of the most reliable Intermarket relationships, the one between the Dollar Index and Commodities ( they are inversely correlated) shall be watched closely as it can hint early warning of an impending reversal of the oil downtrend.