As I said in my last prediction, the Trump factor has come into play. I do not have a real chart for my next prediction, because I think a lot of whats going on at the moment is based on world events and not technical analysis. Trump just declared trade war on China, while the EU accused Russia of attacking European soil with chemical weapons. How did the DAX react? Sure, it fell, but then again, not really. The support line from the summer of last year seems to be holding. China has responded very calmly so far - and will probably remain so. Russia has also been very calm with the whole spy poisoning crisis. Put together, the DAX has lost a lot of ground in February and again, gave the bulls a scare in March. Meanwhile, EU and German data ist good. The DAX wants to be going up, perhaps not to a new all time high, but towards the 13000 line. The fundementals keep knocking it down, but as soon as they set the DAX free, I expect it to bounce off the black support line above as if it were a trampoline. So my trade is:
DAX Call Option
Bought at 11900
Stop-loss at 11750
Take profit - not sure yet
Good luck.
DAX Call Option
Bought at 11900
Stop-loss at 11750
Take profit - not sure yet
Good luck.
Trade active:
Excuse the lie above. The black line is, of course, the low in March, not last summer. The last summer low is a tad higher. The 11750 stoploss covers both.
Trade closed manually:
Due to the nice development of the DAX today, I am going to take profit and not worry about risk the next 4 days. Sold at 12.100.
I still havent decided what to do with the long weekend. On one hand, if nothing happens, the markets are likely to open quite a bit higher on Tuesday. On the other hand, its four days opportunity for a DAX-Killer tweet from Trump. Feel free to comment...