After I had to do a recount of the pattern for several reasons (e.g.: The first two legs of WXY- or ABC-corretions often look very similar and only the count of the final legs must be different! A "Y"-wave has a corrective ABC-pattern and a "C"-wave is an 1-2-3-4-5 impuls-wave) Yesterday, the market acted as if it were in an impuls wave, with finishing of a wave "4" and continuing going down to make a "5" , instead of going beyond the expected 20685 area (for making the "C" as part of a corrective- pattern) as I expected!
Fib. levels:
"Minuette" - wave 2: 0.500 of wave "1"
"Minuette" - wave 4=?: 0.618 of wave "3=?". Be aware, these to waves also could be a "1" and "2" of a lower degree (Subminuette), because there is also some overlapping with "1" and "2" (see black line), which is btw, same with SPX and probably with NASDAQ.
Now, if all these findigs are true, right now the market is in a "Minuette"-wave 5 or in a "Subminuette"-wave 3 to terminate "Minute"-wave c, indicating strongly, that the market is about to finish the correction and will turn! The Fib.-levels are all valid and this final leg could also be extended (sell off)! - Right now, there is enough time to decide, which stocks to buy for the next upswing!
Fib. levels:
"Minuette" - wave 2: 0.500 of wave "1"
"Minuette" - wave 4=?: 0.618 of wave "3=?". Be aware, these to waves also could be a "1" and "2" of a lower degree (Subminuette), because there is also some overlapping with "1" and "2" (see black line), which is btw, same with SPX and probably with NASDAQ.
Now, if all these findigs are true, right now the market is in a "Minuette"-wave 5 or in a "Subminuette"-wave 3 to terminate "Minute"-wave c, indicating strongly, that the market is about to finish the correction and will turn! The Fib.-levels are all valid and this final leg could also be extended (sell off)! - Right now, there is enough time to decide, which stocks to buy for the next upswing!
Comment:
(4) Scenario: The DJI is in a WXY-pattern (as described in my previous post (9) instead of an ABC. This could still be the case. But then, the DOW should be extremely bullish during the coming days... (???)
Given the fact, that the market is oversold (Stoch(14,3,1), there are three possible scenarios:
(1) Elliott Wave theory predicts, that normally in an ABC- corrective pattern, the extension of wave C equals wave A. This rule would predict a level of 20129, which is close to the 0.236 in the chart. If all these counts are correct, 0.236 (20129-20200) and even 0.382 (19600) would be possible. Furthermore, 0.382 would also be the level of the preceding "Minute"-wave 4 (2017-01-19. not shown on the chart), where a correction 4 often ends .
(2) Line studies predict a probable retest of the upper resistance line of a small "Falling Wedge", formed over the last days. IF this test fails, there would be two different possibilities: Either the market moves slowly down within the wedge, testing the red dotted supportline repeatedly and once having hit the 0.236 there would be a bullish breakout (AFTER the 2017-04-20), or there would be an immediate and powerfull correction to the levels descibed above under (1).
(3) The DJI finishes "Minute"-wave c within the "Minor" wave 4, on the actual level 20450 and starts a new cyle from there. However, this kind of correction with "c" ending on level "a" is very rare and that's why, it seems to me rather unrealistic!