INDEX:DOWT DOW Transportations
Oil up and breaks resistance, I think its OK to come out now, the correction in oil is over (?) unless the Saudis have one more card to play yet, maybe up their sleeve, but they think maybe they have made their point to the frackers, and they have a war to fight. Transports liked lower oil , but hate higher oil , and being the market leader they are, when the bow breaks, baby will fall. FED cannot support dollar strength anymore, nothing is working. Euro wants to rise. GDP numbers poor, the illusion is becoming clear now. No rates rise in June? Forget employment and this "data dependent" talk. has no boss, no loyalty, no friends. Its ugly head will rise up when it wants to, because it is data dependent on human nature and fear and greed, and bottom lines. 1.8% minus food and oil , and when you add in those 2? we are over 2% for sure. So, as oil rises, food will rise (to transport it), transports will fall, market will correct. The question is how sharp, how much, every time is had tried to before, someone threw a mattress under it, for a soft, controlled, hit my target landing (trend support), with a hard bounce. All this time I wondered why this chart was different than 2008/09. With most players reacting similarly, but SPY/DOW/IWM etc. I am an idiot! Today it hit me... Oil linked before, oil down, markets down, credit defaults, no liquidity.... We are way less oil dependent, and we have more oil , fracking, easy money, but this time rising oil will derail GDP, and although XLE and its cousins may rise, all others will fall, just the reverse of last time. Could it be that simple? Duh. Cheap gas was nice, but it all went into savings. Low rates were nice, but it did not create jobs. New tech is nice, but it destroyed jobs. What will increase GDP, fill in the blank________________ (crickets, I hear crickets).