darcy kincaid

DX -Long Term perspective for traders and investors

ICEUSA:DX1!   U.S. Dollar Index
431 1 1
Fundamentally the us$ is in better shape that some other currencies, but that is not necessarily a recommendation. Unsustainable spending, huge deficits, an aging population of retirees clamoring for their government promised benefits, along with fewer working age taxpayers and a moribund real economy, does not bode well for the value of any currency.

Technically, there aren't a lot of good signs on the chart as it appears that the expected "rally" in the dx             is nothing more than a technical retrace to the next shorting opportunity and has been treated as such by traders and investors.

The Short Term Swing Short has been aggressively sold on 3 different occasions and this was the expected outcome. On the long side the Intermediate Term Swing Long was likewise aggressively bought on the same number of occasions. Consequently price is range bound and will likely remain so for an extended period. A fundamental catalyst will probably be required to break out of this range.

The LT             Swing Short has reached it's 1st target and we see nothing on the fundamental side or the technical side to suggest that the 2nd target will not be reached. The question is when. There is still plenty of trading space to the upside before we have to consider the eventual negating of the short trade.

One thing to keep in mind is the reaction when the LT             Swing Short reached it's 1st target . The chart shows very little bounce, which bodes ill for any sizable retrace before reaching the 2nd target. The real story will be if and when the Short Term Swing Short hits it's 2nd target. The reaction then will be very interesting.

Trade the chart and trade safe.
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