TVC:DXY US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX
This is a 6 year chart. I believe that we all must know the bigger picture before we trade in the present time. Always look left on charts because structure leaves clues. To help you to understand the direction for gold prices, I have prepared four charts for your consideration. The objective evidence indicates that if the U.S. dollar (as measured by the dollar index - DXY ) is strong, then gold should be weak. Please observe that in June of 2010 DXY sold down. I will show you in "Gold Bugs Part 2" that the gold market was very strong as DXY was very weak. AS DXY rallied in the spring of 2014, gold was weak and continued its sharp downtrend. Before you move on to "Gold Bugs Part 2", I would like to explain the three indicators used. The top indicator is Stochastics/RSI. At 80 or above is overbought, at 20 or below is oversold. The middle indicator is Aroon; green above red is a positive trend, red above green is a negative trend. The bottom indicator is very reliable to confirm or deny moves. It is a version of set at 5. 65, 1 (all Fibonacci numbers). A trend above zero indicates upside action, BUT, a trend moving towards zero, and actual readings under zero, indicate weakness. I have back-tested this setting and it works for me. I believe DXY is weakening as the MACD-65 is heading towards zero. I highlighted a pattern (top right of chart), and Aroon has red above green which indicates a negative trend. Please note that DXY almost hit .382 Fibonacci twice. I believe this will fail. Now, please move on to Gold Bugs Part 2.