649bruno
Long

Gold Bugs: Shakeout Or Fakeout, Part 1 of 4

TVC:DXY   US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX
56 0 3
This is a 6 year chart. I believe that we all must know the bigger picture before we trade in the present time. Always look left on charts because structure leaves clues. To help you to understand the direction for gold             prices, I have prepared four charts for your consideration. The objective evidence indicates that if the U.S. dollar (as measured by the dollar index             - DXY             ) is strong, then gold             should be weak. Please observe that in June of 2010 DXY             sold down. I will show you in "Gold Bugs Part 2" that the gold             market was very strong as DXY             was very weak. AS DXY             rallied in the spring of 2014, gold             was weak and continued its sharp downtrend. Before you move on to "Gold Bugs Part 2", I would like to explain the three indicators used. The top indicator is Stochastics/RSI. At 80 or above is overbought, at 20 or below is oversold. The middle indicator is Aroon; green above red is a positive trend, red above green is a negative trend. The bottom indicator is very reliable to confirm or deny moves. It is a version of MACD set at 5. 65, 1 (all Fibonacci numbers). A trend above zero indicates upside action, BUT, a trend moving towards zero, and actual readings under zero, indicate weakness. I have back-tested this setting and it works for me. I believe DXY             is weakening as the MACD-65 is heading towards zero. I highlighted a bearish shark pattern (top right of chart), and Aroon has red above green which indicates a negative trend. Please note that DXY             almost hit .382 Fibonacci twice. I believe this support level will fail. Now, please move on to Gold             Bugs Part 2.
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