Gekko.uk
Long

The Federal Reserve will hike the US Interest Rate in December

INDEX:DXY   U.S. Dollar Index
412 15 8
a year ago
For reference. Comment below if you agree or disagree. I will make my case using my knowledge on global macro and fundamentals.



a year ago
Comment: Looks like they did it.
eskgroup
a year ago
i vote .25% increase (most "dovish hike")...
+1 Reply
alex.a eskgroup
a year ago
I prefer .05% increase. (the symbolic initial step for the direction with cautious approach not to deteriorate the global economy.)
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Gekko.uk eskgroup
a year ago
Yes, that's a start.
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Banker928
a year ago
yes. they will hike the rate next week.
+1 Reply
Gekko.uk Banker928
a year ago
Of course Banker. You made your view very clear to me.
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They may raise rates just to show they can - however I await QE4 or equivalent. Interim "rate hikes" will be for show.
+1 Reply
Gekko.uk BrandonHolt-Smith
a year ago
Lol very detailed
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alex.a
a year ago
The FRB Chairperson will calculate the backfire and its offset parameters will work how... Then, she will decide for sure. If the result of backfire is greater than postponing, but yet she has no choice if she misses this time but yet extremely difficult decision for her due to the side effect. She has all the data so God helps her and her team.
+1 Reply
Gekko.uk alex.a
a year ago
Yep. She has to treat this with much care.
Reply
Banker928
a year ago
At this point the market knows a hike is happening next week, so that is a given and should not be what you will want to look for to make a trade after the event. The key will be the wording regarding the pace of the next hikes, and probably more imortantly the dot plot of the fed memebers interest rate forecasts. If the dots are higher, then USD will have a nice sustainable bullish move for a few session after the initial reaction from the hike.
Reply
Banker928 Banker928
a year ago
adding to this, if the dots are higher, yen should also do well as risk sentiment would probably dip, sending flows into risk havens. So long usdjpy wouldnt be the best place to try and trade the usd strength.... best bet would be against the emerging market currencies, second best would be against the commodity dollars.
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Gekko.uk Banker928
a year ago
So USDCNY is your best bet?
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Banker928 Gekko.uk
a year ago
BRICS in general.
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FxSaint
a year ago
What if next week rate hike doesn't happen ? Yes, I m speculating that it wont happen next week. May be market will be surprised or it will be just me :)
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If they hike interest rates it means economic activity is picking up.Either China & The Fed aren't telling the truth or The Baltic Dry Index is.Take your pick.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-10/lets-just-hope-shipping-isnt-telling-real-story-china#comment-6907222
And then there's this situation:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-10/feds-painted-itself-most-dangerous-corner-history-why-there-will-soon-be-riot-casino
Remove up to $800 Billion in liquidity and see what happens.Traders,be very careful coming into this decision:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-10/one-week-left-until-feds-rate-hike-nobody-knows-if-fed-can-actually-do-it
Reply
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