TVC:DXY   U.S. Dollar Index
6.3.22 copper oil dxy: I want to make sure you understand my point if you listen to this video. It's very hard to trade when you have fear of loss because the fear cancels out effective discretionary decisions. If you don't have a track record of success, you will trade with fear. If you paper trade and you accept that you cannot lose money, you can analyze the market more effectively to work yourself through complicated price action when you're in a trade. The short trade on copper is a complicated trade for me because I think there's a possibility that it may not to the breakout area, and that it might reverse and make a new high.That is my concern whether the market does that are not, and I choose to find a strategy that might work, and it may never matter in the end if the market quickly moves lower and gets to the $5000 target.If it's my trade, that's my concern on my trade.I am comfortable with my plan. I know that it's a complicated decision and that I very well could be wrong. I believe the best way to learn is to find one system of analysis, and focus on that to learn how to judge the market and trade the market. Mixing and matching two different systems, by definition, is a terrible way to create your trading system. However, if you are watching my process of trading the market, I have to tell you what I'm doing whether it's easy or not, or whether it makes a winning trade or not. But you cannot trade somebody else's system until you test it, and you cannot competently do this unless you paper traded and your mind is free from fear for two reasons, one, you will not make money, and two, your anxiety will screen out any objective analysis. If you're losing money paper trading, you will lose more money in actual trading. You want to be comfortable with your system, it does pay to paper trade when you're learning because you can be more objective since you're not actually losing money, you don't have to paper trade forever, but you should be able to have five or six or 10 winning trades, and then factor in the number of losing trades, and if you're making money you can try trading actual positions.This is not optimal, but most traders don't do any of this, and a lot of traders just follow someone else's recommendation who probably isn't much better trading than they are. Once you start losing money in actual trading, it can become unbelievably difficult to recover, and this should be avoided as much as possible. It occurred to me that I came across arrogantly, if that's the case don't worry about it, I'm not going to worry about it. However, trading without a track record, trading without experience ruins trade accounts. You have to have some real time experience on paper, and then carefully work yourself into real-time positions, preserving capital, and then you have a chance of having a viable system that'll work for you and make you money over the long haul.When I talked about this trade on copper, I wasn't going to get into the potential problems of the short trade. If I get stopped out then I get stopped out with a small stop, if it goes a couple thousand dollars lower and then I get stopped out, then it's a small loss. It's no big deal. However, that's not how I'm thinking the market, warts and all. The decision-making is more complicated, and so I'm bringing it up whether it works or not. The problem with it is it requires they have to take the time to explain myself.Just watch, observe, you don't have to watch every minute, but you can go through the mental process without fear and risk of loss, and see if this is a realistic way for you to trade the market. There is another way to take a trade: enter the market, have a stop in a target, and then walk away from the screen. That is a valid way, and possibly a more palatable way of trading than doing what I'm doing for this trade.
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