What do you think?
NFP = Non Farm Payroll
NFP measures change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency
UR = US Unemployment Rate
UR measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency
just some thoughts: even I suppose you all know it anyway :
a) given this 12x data and price action you see both NFP as well as UR was ~50% correct. e.g. NFP was worse than expected, but UR was better than expected, price rallied, and sometimes the other way around. Only once (!) both figures came worse than expected and the price tanked. Hence the reaction is random.
b) the strange thing about the UR is the private houshold survey, which is based on only 60000 (!) randomly selected households and can vary to the extreme , as we just saw last time, when UR dropped to totally unexpected 7.8%.
c) obviously the US$ Index is also driven by so many other factors (e.g. Euro crisis itself).
So, as always, this is one of many indicators to watch out.
What I do is of course he same, I look for the numbers vs expectation, BUT what is also VERY interesting is the reaction afterwards. Let's say numbers coming better than expected, but market does not reflect this and goes south, than I go with the price action.
best of luck and thx again mike. KP
Chartbuzz have mentioned a few. There is way to many factors pushing US Index.
In May this year EU entered a very serious crisis.
At the end of July Draghi said "ECB will do whatever it takes to save the EUR" (That was PA level @ 1.2000 but we ended up EUR was pulled up with fundamentals).
Anyway, very interesting idea, but just can't find anything sold that I would use as decision making in my trades.