Overview of the dollar... at least until years end
From the negatively sloped resistance trend line (in red) and the positively sloped support trend line (in green) we can see there exists in the dollar, indecision. The dollar has been consolidating since the end of the first quarter of 2016.
I am trying to answer the million dollar question; should I be investing in the dollar or shorting it?
I decided to perform this analysis on the dollar index to sorta kill lots of birds with one stone (see how smart I am) because whatever the outcome of the dollar, being THE US DOLLAR, it'll affect basically everything from other nations's currencies to commodities and energy. I don't intend to go into the economics of how in this publication.
I intend, however, to use probability to answer the million dollar question (will the dollar appreciate or depreciate in value?).
To do that, I need:
1. To measure the strength of the market's resistance relative to it's support by:
a. Measuring the slope of the support and resistance trend line
b. Measuring the magnitudes (measured in %change over time) of each support and resistance point (or price) on the lines
c. Counting the number of support and resistance points on each line, and
d. Measuring the distance (measured in percentage) between current price and the support and resistance lines (in magenta color)
RESULTS
1. In terms of slope, support > resistance, 0.6 to 0.22 (for the purpose of comparison, we use the absolute values i.e ignore the signs and compare the numbers)
2. In terms of magnitude, color coded, overall support > overall resistance, 0.49 to 0.25 ( we sum all magnitudes pertaining support and compare it to the sum of all magnitude pertaining resistance, again using their absolute values)
3. In terms of number of points, support > resistance, 4 to 2 (I assume we all know that the more points on a support or resistance line, the more likely it is to hold true)
4. In terms of distance between support and resistance line and current price, price would have to appreciate 1.7% and at least touch the resistance line, thereby increasing it's magnitude and number of points and possibly CLOSE above it to confirm a breakout to the upside. Whereas, price just needs to depreciate 0.5% and touch the support line and CLOSE below it to confirm a breakout to the downside. This may not mean much but in lay mans language, it's easier for market makers to push price down than up especially if there is no news to decide market sentiment and as a result price direction. So in this regard, resistance > support.
P.S This is such a time and energy consuming kind of analysis which is still under development by me cos I'm a genius (not so much tho), which is why i chose a larger time frame (again cos I'm awesome) and carried out the analysis over a longer period of time. I wonder how people are able to create sooo much charts. Please I'd appreciate your feedback. Is it too long, is it too time consuming, is there too much text, is the bias/logic/rational unreasonable... I want it all. Don't hesitate to also destroy that thumbs up icon. Give me the strength to keep developing this style of analysis and make it FREE for ALL... like a bird... free....
I am trying to answer the million dollar question; should I be investing in the dollar or shorting it?
I decided to perform this analysis on the dollar index to sorta kill lots of birds with one stone (see how smart I am) because whatever the outcome of the dollar, being THE US DOLLAR, it'll affect basically everything from other nations's currencies to commodities and energy. I don't intend to go into the economics of how in this publication.
I intend, however, to use probability to answer the million dollar question (will the dollar appreciate or depreciate in value?).
To do that, I need:
1. To measure the strength of the market's resistance relative to it's support by:
a. Measuring the slope of the support and resistance trend line
b. Measuring the magnitudes (measured in %change over time) of each support and resistance point (or price) on the lines
c. Counting the number of support and resistance points on each line, and
d. Measuring the distance (measured in percentage) between current price and the support and resistance lines (in magenta color)
RESULTS
1. In terms of slope, support > resistance, 0.6 to 0.22 (for the purpose of comparison, we use the absolute values i.e ignore the signs and compare the numbers)
2. In terms of magnitude, color coded, overall support > overall resistance, 0.49 to 0.25 ( we sum all magnitudes pertaining support and compare it to the sum of all magnitude pertaining resistance, again using their absolute values)
3. In terms of number of points, support > resistance, 4 to 2 (I assume we all know that the more points on a support or resistance line, the more likely it is to hold true)
4. In terms of distance between support and resistance line and current price, price would have to appreciate 1.7% and at least touch the resistance line, thereby increasing it's magnitude and number of points and possibly CLOSE above it to confirm a breakout to the upside. Whereas, price just needs to depreciate 0.5% and touch the support line and CLOSE below it to confirm a breakout to the downside. This may not mean much but in lay mans language, it's easier for market makers to push price down than up especially if there is no news to decide market sentiment and as a result price direction. So in this regard, resistance > support.
P.S This is such a time and energy consuming kind of analysis which is still under development by me cos I'm a genius (not so much tho), which is why i chose a larger time frame (again cos I'm awesome) and carried out the analysis over a longer period of time. I wonder how people are able to create sooo much charts. Please I'd appreciate your feedback. Is it too long, is it too time consuming, is there too much text, is the bias/logic/rational unreasonable... I want it all. Don't hesitate to also destroy that thumbs up icon. Give me the strength to keep developing this style of analysis and make it FREE for ALL... like a bird... free....
Something I forgot to add when I carried out this analysis was; how much risk would we have had to absorb before getting a confirmation we're on the wrong side of the trade(I guess that's what I tried to explain in complicated terms in analysis number 4...?)? As you can see, we would've had to absorb a 1.7% appreciation of price moving against our trade direction if we were short and a 0.5% depreciation of price moving against us if we were were long the dollar. So, long trades would've been less risky than shorts. So all odds from the onset pointed toward a rising dollar. Coupled with recent Monetary policy development, it just couldn't get any better!!