hthieuvn

DXY vs UKOIL vs US30, daily line chart

TVC:DXY   US Dollar Currency Index
42 4 5
If you raise rates in July, the dollar index up schedule correction (out of range, or in the US recession soon)?
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hthieuvn creaker
Dear Creaker, thanks for your question but I'm sorry that I'm not familiar with FOREX as well as some macro economic matters. I made this chart just to follow the correlation between some core indexes (USD, US30, etc.) and crude oil prices (USOIL, UKOIL). However, in my opinion, based on the chart, I see that since 1986 whenever US30 in downtrend, USD value was down later too and it still kept in low until the US30 move up. This tight relationship might help each other to be stronger as well as devalue time by time.

I think in the current context of global economy, especially with the recession in EU, North East Asia countries and maybe also in US, whenever the FED will raise the rate, they need to consider deeply with the other economics and currencies, especially Chinese Yuan (CNY). So once again just in my opinion, even FED raise rates 2 times this year, they may already calculate that how stronger USD for US and global economies. I mean the USD might be stronger after raising rates but still weak in general (in compare with few years ago) to boost the US economy (to deal with the frequent devalue of other currencies such as CNY) and (may be) global economies.

May I remind you that I'm not the analyst and hope it could satisfy your query.
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creaker hthieuvn
Thanks for the answer.
I do not understand why the United States worry about the yuan, at the rate of $ 1 = 6,562 yuan, the Chinese goods the same factor of competitiveness, but the stacks of dollar index (without raising rates) US goes into a pit.
Reply
hthieuvn creaker
Hi Creaker,

As I told you that actually I don't understand much about economic and financial issues. For your question, I think (as I heard and read from somewhere) that maybe China will need to continue devalue its CNY to deal with its internal economic - social - political issues and also for its goal to be the most superpower country in the world (and then China will have more power to drive the world). As you may know that China has been the biggest exporter of goods to the world so keeping CNY in low value will be better to this biggest exporter.

To the US economy (and also to the world), lower CNY means more Chinese goods export to the US market and then this may cause more jobless in US too.

I don't know where you are living Creaker, but if you're living in the US so you may understand this much more than me. All I know is just from reading and hearing.

Nice to have a interesting discussion with you.
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