1 – The maximum this year is 2400 if SP500 manages to hug the speed limit until year end without breaching below the 400d ema.
2 – 2140/2170 is golden point end of January15/early March15 (it would be a no brainer short for a few percent be it bull or bear).
3 – As long as 2020 is defended (that s where I would put my stop), the golden point has good chances to be reached.
4 – As long as 1950 (yearly pivot) and 1850 (400d ema) retain, SP500 could be supported for further upside (I.e the rally is intact in big picture)
5 – I forecast the pivotal price action (the circle) to occur in April15.
6 – If there is a large correction this year, the time distance between top and bottom could be 3 months and the magnitude could be 20% (the bulk of it in the last 15days).
Technically:
A large correction could easily fit in (100% up without a correction greater than 10%)– whether it will be triggered through key supports or not is yet unclear: trading step by step.
News Flow
Deflation in Europe.
ECB QE Pending.
Better US data so far.
Rates Hikes in the US later this year.
Crude still to find a bottom.
EURUSD to dive further. Should erode US earnings projections I would have thought.
Valuations close to 2007 – Well priced – This does not provide a decisive conclusion either way.
2 – 2140/2170 is golden point end of January15/early March15 (it would be a no brainer short for a few percent be it bull or bear).
3 – As long as 2020 is defended (that s where I would put my stop), the golden point has good chances to be reached.
4 – As long as 1950 (yearly pivot) and 1850 (400d ema) retain, SP500 could be supported for further upside (I.e the rally is intact in big picture)
5 – I forecast the pivotal price action (the circle) to occur in April15.
6 – If there is a large correction this year, the time distance between top and bottom could be 3 months and the magnitude could be 20% (the bulk of it in the last 15days).
Technically:
A large correction could easily fit in (100% up without a correction greater than 10%)– whether it will be triggered through key supports or not is yet unclear: trading step by step.
News Flow
Deflation in Europe.
ECB QE Pending.
Better US data so far.
Rates Hikes in the US later this year.
Crude still to find a bottom.
EURUSD to dive further. Should erode US earnings projections I would have thought.
Valuations close to 2007 – Well priced – This does not provide a decisive conclusion either way.