ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Zones, Setups for Thu, Oct 9

Market Drivers (ET)
• 08:30 — Fed Chair Powell: pre-recorded welcoming remarks at the Community Bank Conference. risk flag
• 08:30 — Initial Jobless Claims: suspended while the federal government remains shut down; will publish only if funding is restored before release time.
• 08:35 — Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman: opening remarks (same conference).
• 09:45 — Treasury Sec. Bessent remarks & fireside chat (conference item; headline risk is modest).
• 10:30 — EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage (standard Thursday slot).
• 11:30 — Treasury 4- & 8-week bill auctions (regular Thursday bills).
• 13:00 — Treasury 30-Year Bond (reopening) auction.
• All day: Other conference sessions (payments, community-bank panels; closing remarks late afternoon) may generate minor tape headlines.

A++ Setups (NY kill-zones: 09:30–11:00 & 13:30–16:00)

1) Breakout Continuation LONG (Tier-1 A++) — 6,809 unlocks
Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6,809, then 5m holds a retest 6,803–6,806 and re-closes up.
Entry: 1m higher-low on the retest hold.
Invalidation: Hard SL just below the 15m trigger-wick (±0.25–0.50 pts).
Targets: TP1 6,828–6,832, TP2 6,844–6,848, stretch 6,895± if trend day forms.


2) Rejection SHORT (Tier-1 A++) — Fail at 6,803–6,809
Trigger: Sweep/fail above 6,803–6,809 → 15m closes back inside ≤6,803; 5m forms a lower-high and re-closes down.
Entry: 1m LH after the 5m re-close.
Invalidation: Hard SL a tick beyond the rejection wick.
Targets: TP1 6,789, TP2 6,766–6,759, stretch 6,738–6,733.

Market Update and Trading Insight

Overnight Analysis:
As we enter the London session, we should expect a balanced trading range between 6,789 and 6,806. If we can hold above 6,797 as we transition into the European market, this may set the stage for a pre-New York move targeting the 6,803 to 6,809 area. Any shallow pullbacks that maintain the 6,797 to 6,799 support level will likely keep the bullish trend intact.

08:30 ET (Powell Speech - Pre-recorded):
The potential for significant market movements at this timing appears modest. Since there is no jobless claims data this week, we anticipate that the typical volatility around 08:30 will be lighter than usual. Should Powell's comments come across as neutral, expect trading activity to focus more on market levels and flows rather than on hard data.