SP500 - Upside Risk Assessment

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Vertical up: Limited risk after ECB non announcement - 10% Probability of shoot-up to 2140.

Grinding up: Possible – 50% probability – that is really the philosophy of what is going on right now. 7 weeks so far, could last another 4 weeks and climb 30pts (1.5%).

Correction: 2010, 1970, 1940 or as low 1914 – 40% probability.

Below 1900 - Fasten your seat belt over 4 days

If markets go up from here, EUROPE COULD OUTPERFORM THE US by a multiple of 2 to 3.

SP500             has a interesting target at 2140 away from weekly or even monthly dynamics.

If the rally persists (whichever the path), it could reach 2200 in jul15. We are talking of 7% upside over 7 months.
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