My favorite buzz word has become "Bear Market Rally". I feel like every time I see some "expert" speak they will say the exact opposite of the last "expert" that I saw speak.
Truth is, nobody really knows whats going on. We as humans have an extreme need to make sense of the world around us. If things don't make sense then we don't feel safe. Therefore we assign words to situations to help give ourselves a sense of understanding of what is happening in our lives and our surroundings. Those words are "buzz words".
No one can tell you with real certainty what is going to happen next. But there are things we can do to get hints of probability. The price movement on a chart is giving us a whole lot of information about what price is doing and where it might be going.
Price action follows a few rules almost religiously which makes patterns form and repeat over time. One of those rules is : "Once there as been a break in a channel, a new extreme will be formed. After the new extreme is formed, there will either be a continuation of the trend, a consolidation period, or a reversal. You can see this play out on the daily ES chart as of 11-20-2022 at 10:11pm cst.
Price has broken the channel here two times and then a new extreme was formed. On the first one, after the extreme and a "short consolidation period, the market reversed and this is what has come to be known as our current "Bear Market Rally".
The second time on this chart that price has broken the channel we see 2 things that require attention:
1) On the first break, the amount of time it took for the price to continue in the direction of the trend was pretty short and it wasn't a very dramatic break. The second time it broke the amount of time it took to get back to the trend was longer. (This was due to news and election crazp).
2) On the first break, after the new extreme was created, its correction phase was extremely short. On the second break after the new extreme, the correction phase has been 4 bars long as of this writing. This period of slowness might be able to be somewhat attributed to the long move we had on November 10. This could just be the market taking a breath. We are hovering around the 38.2 Fib level..we seem to enjoy that level this year...could be form the time of year. Thanksgiving is this week and maybe like politicians, everybody takes off for the last 2 months of the year...lol.
Even though we have made a higher high I wouldn't buy this as a legit uptrend reversal just yet. There are definitely signs of exhaustion, and with the 38.2 Fib level slapping us, we might see a few down sessions.
I would be very careful right now, and just run scalps reading the price action looking for 8 ticks of profit.
Truth is, nobody really knows whats going on. We as humans have an extreme need to make sense of the world around us. If things don't make sense then we don't feel safe. Therefore we assign words to situations to help give ourselves a sense of understanding of what is happening in our lives and our surroundings. Those words are "buzz words".
No one can tell you with real certainty what is going to happen next. But there are things we can do to get hints of probability. The price movement on a chart is giving us a whole lot of information about what price is doing and where it might be going.
Price action follows a few rules almost religiously which makes patterns form and repeat over time. One of those rules is : "Once there as been a break in a channel, a new extreme will be formed. After the new extreme is formed, there will either be a continuation of the trend, a consolidation period, or a reversal. You can see this play out on the daily ES chart as of 11-20-2022 at 10:11pm cst.
Price has broken the channel here two times and then a new extreme was formed. On the first one, after the extreme and a "short consolidation period, the market reversed and this is what has come to be known as our current "Bear Market Rally".
The second time on this chart that price has broken the channel we see 2 things that require attention:
1) On the first break, the amount of time it took for the price to continue in the direction of the trend was pretty short and it wasn't a very dramatic break. The second time it broke the amount of time it took to get back to the trend was longer. (This was due to news and election crazp).
2) On the first break, after the new extreme was created, its correction phase was extremely short. On the second break after the new extreme, the correction phase has been 4 bars long as of this writing. This period of slowness might be able to be somewhat attributed to the long move we had on November 10. This could just be the market taking a breath. We are hovering around the 38.2 Fib level..we seem to enjoy that level this year...could be form the time of year. Thanksgiving is this week and maybe like politicians, everybody takes off for the last 2 months of the year...lol.
Even though we have made a higher high I wouldn't buy this as a legit uptrend reversal just yet. There are definitely signs of exhaustion, and with the 38.2 Fib level slapping us, we might see a few down sessions.
I would be very careful right now, and just run scalps reading the price action looking for 8 ticks of profit.