Ethereum: Bearish long-term outlook

POLONIEX:ETHBTC   Ethereum / Bitcoin
1989 2
There are striking similarities between ETH and XMR charts. Both cryptocurrencies have been dominated by selling pressure as early investors are still in search for buyers to take their massive profits. We are currently in a tight range, so I'm waiting for better risk-reward long or short opportunties, as outlined in the chart. Watching closely the BTCUSD cross pair, as volatility is coming after long weeks of bollinger bands compression.

Warning: chart for educative purposes only.
Comment: Update: still on it's way to 0.010-0.009.

Fundamentally I don't think a long term bearish outlook makes any sense for ethereum. Short term? sure. But know that the tokens being released on ethereum are gaining major traction. Augur being the main one, its mktcp is insane; rep was ranked against other coins and was #7 the other day. just a token on ethereum! incredible. Also remember that DAO hack scare only took price as low as $7, and it immediately recovered. As soon as something major is created on ethereum you can bet your ass price will explode (that includes augur)!
tududu movethebeerdownstairs
Long term I am bullish on Ethereum and crypto in general, but I don't see it happening soon, there is still a lot of consolidation to do after the 1000% bubble move. If BTC makes its move to $1000 (Yuan devaluation, DB bailout being, stock market crash being possible drivers) we might see the capitulation described in my chart, and that would be the perfect spot entry. Breaking out 2400 then 2800 would definitely get me interested as a first step torwards a new ATH at 0.05BTC, but that's unlikely for now. The fact is that ETH is facing many problems foreseen by the bitcoin wizards because of the wide attack surface, and developers are wary to deploy high-stake code on it . Ethereum may be even losing its"first-move advantage" regarding smart contracts to Counterparty, RootStock or to upcoming HyperLedger and Corda blockchain platforms.

I took part in the Augur crowdsale and sold mine for a really high price, one I would have never dreamt of. I'm skeptical about Augur, their progress is slow, Github is a mess, they took way too long to hire more developers, UI is terrible and marketing is almost non-existent. There are also other competitors such as Gnosis and Hivemind with better teams (Paul Sztorc is a brillant guy). After almost 20x on my initial fiat investment, I'm not eager to risk any more money in REP, I will gladly leave that risk to whoever bought my tokens.
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