Ethereum April Update #5 (Special Edition)

POLONIEX:ETHBTC   Ethereum / Bitcoin
1389 7 21
I actually enjoy questions and comments (both positive and negative), so please leave them.
My thoughts:
1. Note that wave 2 is a triangle that is essentially sideways. Wave 4 typically alternates, in this case a sharp bounce.
2. The ultimate target of .01 makes the most sense as most zigzags finish at the 161.8% fib of wave ((A)). There's little reason to suggest this will be any different.
3. It is entirely possible a bottom is found earlier than .01 without breaking any rules, but it just seems unlikely. The psychology of it (as per chart) makes sense on how people typically react in bubble situations. A bottom of .015 does not smell like despair but .01 does. Most people also expect a .015 bottom.
4. The path and time frame is just a guideline, it's almost impossible to predict the exact path and time it will take. However, I have added fib timelines for the first time. Will be interesting to see how it will play out.

FAQ: (Not really since no one ever asks me anything so I'll make them up)
Q: Mr BuyBitcoins, how come you do not use indicators such as volume to assist your trades?
A: I do believe indicators such as rsi , macd , volume , etc are useful. However, I personally find them a little distracting. They can also be less valuable during massive bubbles. If something is not broken, why fix it?
Q: Where did you learn Elliott Waves from?
A: There are resources all over the internet, plenty of books out there and videos. I don't have any recommendations.
Q: What's the airspeed velocity of an unladen swallow? - @cbtc
A: A quick search found this as the answer: " estimate that the airspeed velocity of an unladen European Swallow is 10 meters per second."
Q: What should I ask you? - @esuvari
A: Nevermind.

Disclaimer: None, I think they are stupid. Stop pretending to be holier-than-thou.
(Give me likes, because I am an insecure individual who needs validation from others. Its free!)
Comment: I no longer think we the time frame is correct. It's unlikely to go at the same trajectory as wave 3. A more likely scenario is this:
Thank you. I had a similar idea.... I'm thinking the bottom of despair may look something like 0.0095
Even though I am bullish on mETH I love this chart. Great work.
+1 Reply
BuyBitcoins domavila
I am starting to change my mind, I think I am wrong
domavila BuyBitcoins
Even though you might be wrong it is still great analysis. I heard many a person call double bottom right where your analysis called it. I think we are bullish here too.
A couple of days ago you suggested going long based on bounce from around the .02 area. That support completely collapsed and now here we are. Any idea as to why it panned out that way? Thanks for being receptive to questions. I like the charting you have been doing so far and would like to learn from them.
+3 Reply
BuyBitcoins phlogistax
There is only so much one can predict due to the natural volatility in such a market. I was caught by surprised at the lack of bounce. I believe it was a pretty big mistake in hindsight longing there. Firstly. the wave 2 was a triangle, so wave 4 had to be sharp. A sharp bounce at .02 did not make much sense and it would go quite high. Secondly, even if I was correct a bounce happens at .02, the larger trend is still down, in such a situation, one should close to re-open instead of longing. The opposite is true in an uptrend. You don't really short in anticipation of dips, you close the longs and buy the dips. Here I should have closed shorts and re-opened. Hope this makes sense.
+4 Reply
phlogistax BuyBitcoins
Does make good sense. I understand about the volatility, naturally. Just to be clear, my comment was not meant to be a criticism but rather I was curious about the possible rationale as to why that given prediction failed to see if I can pick up some sort of lesson from it. Thanks for the thorough explanation.
+2 Reply
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