-50% chance of this scenario
61% fib line breaks (bottom bold black line, around .019) and eventually we head down to .01:
-35% chance of this scenario
50% fib line breaks (top bold black line, around .0225) and eventually we make it up to .03:
-15% chance of this scenario
Obviously the probabilities are a bit subjective, but that's my take.
I had mad this idea alternatively which seems more accurate:
...now it's easy for people to make a bunch of ideas and inevitably one will be right and then claim that they were correct the whole time, but that is not my intention, I just like to have a few alternative ideas to present 1-2 different scenarios of what i see coming, and act accordingly. In past experience this has helped me trade and analyze the market.
All that said I don't rule anything out, a nice close above .0225 would be a good indication that my bearishness is off. .026 would then become likely as a big right shoulder, or it could even go as high as a double top at .03...but i'll cross that bridge if and when it comes about.
...my gut says this is the top, but we'll see.
No position at the moment