ETH/BTC Outlook for coming weeks

POLONIEX:ETHBTC   Ethereum / Bitcoin
259 1 7
Range between the 50% and 61% fib lines of the overall run (two bold black lines):
-50% chance of this scenario

61% fib line breaks (bottom bold black line, around .019) and eventually we head down to .01:
-35% chance of this scenario

50% fib line breaks (top bold black line, around .0225) and eventually we make it up to .03:
-15% chance of this scenario

Obviously the probabilities are a bit subjective, but that's my take.

Comment: Short term:
Comment: Seems the H+S was invalidated, i'm still not convinced of the bull case though. My skepticism is largely due to the fact that ETH/BTC has exhibited a fairly negative correlation with BTC/USD at times, and it seems BTC/USD is about to break out.

I had mad this idea alternatively which seems more accurate: it's easy for people to make a bunch of ideas and inevitably one will be right and then claim that they were correct the whole time, but that is not my intention, I just like to have a few alternative ideas to present 1-2 different scenarios of what i see coming, and act accordingly. In past experience this has helped me trade and analyze the market.

All that said I don't rule anything out, a nice close above .0225 would be a good indication that my bearishness is off. .026 would then become likely as a big right shoulder, or it could even go as high as a double top at .03...but i'll cross that bridge if and when it comes about.
Trade closed: target reached: Now we see if support at .019 can hold...
Comment: Nice rally, unfortunately I did not trade it much...still might not be over: That's what I think it most likely in the short term, could ultimately represent the top...if not zooming out a big double top around .03 is possible
Comment: Some bearish price action, coupled with both the fact that btc and ltc are breaking out, and some controversy with DAO, maybe this has already topped out. We'll position for me anyway.
Trade active:
Comment: Zooming out, .03 scenario starting to seem likely over the next week or two.
Trade closed: target reached
Comment: Okay, so another nice really into the low .03's as expected, although unfortunately i was away from the charts after my last trade so i missed out on it. So, what now? All the eth bulls are expecting new highs, im not so sure, i'll wait for confirmation, we had some nice selling above .03. I think now we test the blue ascending trendline gut says this is the top, but we'll see.
Comment: Short term:
Comment: Long...on Coinbase drinking the koolaid:
Trade closed manually: Locked in profits around .0335...just a lot of risk here.
Comment: One last push coming here? Long again...
Trade closed manually: Took profits, ltc looking bullish which is usually a good sign for btc and thus bad sign for eth. We'll see how it goes from here.
Comment: At around .0325
Comment: My best guess for whats next:

No position at the moment
Trade active:
Trade closed manually: Closed this at basically break even...could still break up but btc starting too look bullish again which hasn't been good for eth.
Trade active:
Trade closed: target reached: Could still go higher, but ill take my profits for now.
Comment: Time for the hammer again, overall trend is down...
Also, trend is down for now, that 1d candle will be ugly, we should eventually test .019 at a minimum.
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