I think this sort of situation might be delayed by a short term drop in BTC (as some charters are projecting), causing a rise in ETH. Not saying it can't go down now though. I'm just paying attention to whether it breaks above or below the triangle. If down, then I'm expecting a pretty big dump as you're suggesting.
I would be wary of any price "spikes" over the red trend line. If that happens, there is a good probability it is simply moving into another downward price channel. Especially if doesn't break above the yellow trend line.
Good point, yes. Only valid temporary uptrend if breaks with sufficient momentum to rise and consolidate above yellow line. Regardless, long term trend is down, barring some serious moves above yellow trend line and previous resistance lines.
At the moment I am not willing to divulge the basis of this analysis. It is something I stumbled across purely by chance about two weeks ago and, as far as I know, I am the only person using this information. I will be publishing short term charts (7-30 days) for several other cryptocurrencies using this method. If those predictions are accurate, then I will consider revealing what I am doing. Stay tuned....