travel-nomad

2019 BitMex ETH/USD trades

Short
BITMEX:ETHUSD   ETHUSD Perpetual Futures Contract
Here I'll try to post every ETH trade that I'll take in 2019.
I've only recently learned this style of trading from @CryptoCred on Twitter from his new Trading Guide so make sure to download it and go through it, it's well worth it for the price (it's free lol). Here's my first ETH try with this style...
Link to the Guide: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UJBLRa9...

My SHORT setup:
Entry: $166
Stop-loss: $181
Target: $139
RRR: 1.8

Note: major resistances at my entry and another one at a stop-loss increase my chances of success

Comment: Re-adjusted my setup for a better RRR due to recent price action:

Entry: from $166 to $170
Stop-loss: the same $181
Target: from $139 to $145
RRR. 2.27

Notes:
- considering raising the stop-loss to $144/145 since there is a major resistance there
- another two reasons I believe we will go up:
-- there's Constantinople hard fork coming (since it's still 12 days away the price might go up even higher than $185 and then dump right before the fork. Be careful. I will take partial (~50%) profits on ETH/BTC chart at 0.0415.
-- price is forming sort of a rising triangle (maybe?) which is a bullish pattern.
Order cancelled: Trade abandoned. I guess everyone was shorting at $166-170 so the price didn't even get that far up and now it's already going low. Plus, we have a H&S pattern on 4H which already broke down. On to the next one.
Trade active: New LONG setup that's already been activated:
Entry: $134.5 (technically my proper entry should be around $135.5 but I felt confident it'll go lower and it did)
Stop-loss: $131 (which was already almost triggered)
Target: $148 (maybe I'll lower it to $146 but for now it's okay like this)

Notes:
- support at entry on 1D graph
- resistance at target on 1D graph (both should help me)
Trade closed: stop reached: The price nuked through my SL, RSI is oversold so I'll probably open a new long trade with a new SL.
I did however adapt my SL to $130.5 since I felt $131 was too close to previous low. Didn't work either way.
Trade active: Like I said, entered a new trade immediately.
Entry: $131
Stop-loss: $126
Target: $148 (same as previous but might lover it to $146 later - just below resistance on 1D)
RRR: 3.4

Notes:
- This one I'm playing because RSI is oversold on 4H (~23) and 1H (~11)
- We broke through previous support so this one is against me
- We are nearing the Constantinople hard fork which usually price goes up before that (already did) and then right before the hard fork it usually dumps (even more right after it) - for this one I have no idea if it's playing with or against me.
Trade closed: stop reached: WTF is this bullshit? I'm out, the price needs to calm down. I bet now it'll go up once it nuked me twice :/
Comment: Okay, I gotta try again, this time with the trend. The price broke down to $125 level and didn't bounce almost at all which makes me really bearish.

My SHORT setup:
Entry: $128
Stop-loss: $133
Target: $114 (I might lower it down to the 1D support)
RRR: 2.8

Notes:
- ETH/BTC graph also looks bearish - just broke the support and retesting it from the other side as resistance.
- I guess it's that time of year before the hard fork when everything dumps
Trade closed: target reached: Finally I went with the trend and won a trade. Target was just reached but for now I only took a partial profit (50%), the rest I'll try to leave for now and see what happens. I also lowered my stop-loss down to $120 so I'm in profit anyway.

I still see this as a bearish sign since the price keeps falling and doesn't bounce dramatically. Whatever level it reaches it just stays there for some time and then continues lower.

We broke 4H support with ETH + we broke 1D support on BTC so I guess we're going back down and maybe even see new lows? We still haven't reached 3k support, we only came close... Let's get some popcorn :)
Comment: In hindsight, on Jan 15th I got this trade idea to look for but then I didn't trade much for the next couple of days and forgot about this idea and just today noticed that it would've been a successful trade.
Comment: New LONG idea:
Entry: $115
Stop-loss: $112
Target: $128
RRR: 4.33

Notes:
- decided for this long since we're at a weekly support
- just found this setup now so I already missed my first entry otherwise this would already be an active trade
- I was thinking of setting a target at the next daily resistance around $147 but for now only decided not to set any target just yet, will monitor how this trade behaves first and move my SL up if I'm gonna be right on this trade.
Trade closed: stop reached: Nuked.
Comment: My new LONG setup:
Entry: $113.5
Stop-loss: $110
Target: $147
RRR: 9.57

Notes:
- since we broke the resistance I'm expecting a little pullback into the yellow marked zone and then a new short bull run into the next purple zone which acts as a resistance
- RRR just looks to good to pass up
Order cancelled: Manually cancelled the trade since I was being too greedy and my entry never filled.
Comment: New LONG setup:
Entry: $139
Stop-loss: $134.60
Target: $155.60 (target not set yet)
RRR: 3.78

Notes:
- I know we're approaching 1W resistance but since we're in the middle of nowhere atm, I believe we have a decent chance for another small leg up so won't be betting big now
- at 1W resistance we should bounce back down
- I'm waiting for a new HH for a bigger confirmation that bear season is ending
Order cancelled: Setup manually cancelled.
It would've worked if I didn't miss my entry for a tiny $0.65 :(
Trade closed: stop reached: Didn't have time to update my SHORT setup earlier but as you can see it was already closed when it reached my stop-loss:
Entry: $159
Stop-loss: $163
Target: $148
RRR: 2.75

Notes:
- I thought $163 for a stop-loss would be enough since we were at a resistance
- previous yearly high was just above $161
- I guess MM were hunting for stop-losses and as you can see, they got me real good
Comment: Another SHORT setup:
Entry: $139
Stop-loss: $143
Target: $129
RRR: 2.5

Notes:
- I already missed one entry above $139 but I think it should be triggered anyway
- a lot of huge wicks up and down lately so I widened my stop-loss a little more than usual
Trade closed: target reached: Nailed it!