Following are a series of chart representing a top-down analysis of the $EURAUD pair. On a fundamental basis, I have shown in other charts a probable deterioration of the $EUR, against a likely appreciation in commodity-wide class, including #gold, platinum and palladium - This should impact on positively correlated currencies, such as $AUD, $CAD, $CHF and $NZD to some extent (see these charts and analyses under my TradingView alias: 4xForecaster).
First, let's take a look at the 4-hour, daily and weekly chart, paying particular attention to Fibonacci clusters:
1 - $EURAUD - 4-Hour Chart:
In this chart, we are likely witnessing a corrective development in terms of , with the nascence of an Expanding Triangle ("ET" with internals of 3-3-3-3-3). At first sight, one might believe that recent price action carved a high from which price would decline further to complete point-e of the ET.
However, use of the proprietary Predictive/Forecasting Model suggests that price will likely mount a final intermediate offensive to the level define as circa: 1.62468. A downward 1.618-Fibonacci extension was used to approximate the possible residence of point-e.
Although this may appear too speculative, I am simply using internal A-B-C structures which have developed over the course of this correction, such that a connection of the tops is delineating divergent a-c and b-d lines, reminiscent of the ET as the closest eligible pattern.
Now, using the height of the 3-wave that defined point-a of this ET, a standard 1.618-Fib extension comes in perfect alignment with the 1.131-Fib extension derived from the entire height of this correction, calling our attention to the 1.67152 level - This is the level that we will continue to follow in the following daily and weekly charts.
2 - $EURAUD - Daily Chart:
In this , I am adding another , using the 4-hour cluster at 1.67152, and bringing this up against yet another Fibonacci alignment generated from a much larger corrective pattern (apparently a with 5-3-5 internals), whose height serves to define a significant 1.414 extension, as it too falls perfectly in line with 1.67152.
The relevance of these clusters cannot be over-emphasized, especially when we look at background geometries that would provide the mechanism behind the expected price action .
Hence, so far, we have contemplated a 4-Hour Expanding Triangle, allowing a transient decline to point-e as a springboard for further ascent to a daily price field in which three significant Fibonacci clusters are expected.
Now, looking at the following weekly chart, I will add my own geometry through a Geo that appears to have completed its 5-plot cycle, but may allow for a slight price excursion ("slight" on a weekly scale).
(... cont'd - See discussion thread for the remainder of the analysis ... )
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
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Following is a re-posting from $EUR room and ATHENA room:
- Here is a possible Wolfe Wave / Geo development:
Looking at both the ATHENA method and the WW/Geo development, the following mechanism of ascent is preparing:
1 - Price rests upon the parallel of the A-C Line (in other examples, I refer to this as the 1-3 Line, but this is one and the same methodology), as a typical preparation for departure in the direction of the side that lends it support and slope (Here, we are talking about the A-C Line;
2 - The Wolfe Wave / Geo completed its 5-point cycle; This too is a typical preparation for a counter-trending ascent to the 1-4 Line (dotted in blue);
3 - Price is completing its 5th wave of a bearish motive wave. This too signals the completion of a cycle (Elliott Wave impulse wave cycle completion), and thus prepares price for a counter-trend, which in Elliott Wave parlance would be a corrective course.
OVERALL: These are three independent conditions heralding a probable reversal.
Price bounced off of support as forecast; Remains intent on contra-lateral target:
Price reached support at 1.52336 - Expecting it to recommence upswing:
In recent analyses, we contend with two geometries: One being the Geo, and the other being a nascent expanding triangle to which we expected to apply the ATHENA methodology.
In the chart above, I decided to simply the price field by committing to the Geo, being a much more familiar geometry than the other whose B-D line had not yet been defined.
Note the internal development of a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry pointing to a probable Point-5, and thus complete the Geo and thus defining a high-probability level of reversal.
A prop pattern was used to define the upper and lower targets, expecting a validation to occur in this order.
Look out for:
1 - Unrealized reciprocal ab = cd symmetry
2 - Unanswered prop pattern target at 148701.
Although this target is not generated from the Predictive/Forecasting Model, it carries a respectable probability of realization.
Instead, consider the then-support (pink arrows) to now act as resistance, eventually satisfying these geometric demands.
As expected, price was repelled by the predefined level ... Bearish forecast remains in force:
Price continues to move to bearish target 1.48701, defined this past November, 12th - Keeping a close watch on this one:
Price completes the reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, whereas bearish TG = 1.48701 target, defined on November 12th 2015, remains pending and probable:
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@emre - Yes, the WEEKLY chart is not the ideal chart from which to trade as far as I am concerned. However, it offers a wild seas map and general overview of potential maelstroms and icebergs that may cause price to move in ways that would otherwise not be so discernible.
Here is a DAILY view several elements that may or may not bear relevance to what you are looking for. Nonetheless, I post them here, because they are what I lay my eyes upon. And wait.
1 - Geo remains nascent with a floating Point-4 that is yet to be defined.
a -- One can approximate the final residence of Point-4 by simply waiting for a validation of the 2-4 Line.
b -- However, this level tends to occur lower than that, hence the range defined in the chart ... In other (rarer) cases, it could occur with a final Point-4 above the 2-4 Line
c -- The dotted line also projects upward - It should instead project in the opposite direction than the 1-3 Line. Since the 1-3 Line is up, then it should point down, which is not yet the case, so a lower Point-4 is more likely, simply based on the geometry.
2 - The geometry connecting Point-3 and Point-4 demands that it be a zigzag (ideally, a simple ZZ, as opposed to a more complex Elliott Wave double-ZZ or triple-ZZ variety). However, be prepared for price to rise ABOVE the outlined levels in an even more complex geometry, such as an expanding triangle. I have left these lines in the price field to keep that visual reminder. If such triangle were to occur, it would likely throw price to the upside, and thus move opposite to the simpler (PINK) reciprocal ab = cd symmetry.
3 - Fibonacci extension levels can tell a lot about the aggressive counter-trend intentions of the market. Whereas a 1.618 extension is expected to complete in most times, an aggressive counter-trending market will fall short of it, validating the 1.414 level instead, and then reverse and move on it ... How can we tell ... I can't, and I tend to not try to finesse that level of refinement with the Fib alone. Sometimes, the Model is there lurking with its own values, like a moray heel in its dark hole. In this case, I have not delved in these depths to find out, as I am looking still at the total picture, as opposed to getting too close and thus too blind-sided to other possibilities.
I hope this offers something more concrete to hand on to compared to the WEEKLY windy turns.
The larger wave count refers to cycle-level waves depicting a larger, incomplete motive cycle wave-5 - The geometric overlay remains that of the Geo, whereas the overhead target is defined independently by the Predictive/Forecasting Model ... Chart, analysis and forecast remain unchanged thus far: