$EUR v. $AUD - Geo Eyes Reversal | #fibonacci #elliottwave #ECB
Friends,
Following are a series of chart representing a top-down analysis of the $EURAUD pair. On a fundamental basis, I have shown in other charts a probable deterioration of the $EUR, against a likely appreciation in commodity-wide class, including #gold, platinum and palladium - This should impact on positively correlated currencies, such as $AUD, $CAD, $CHF and $NZD to some extent (see these charts and analyses under my TradingView alias: 4xForecaster).
First, let's take a look at the 4-hour, daily and weekly chart, paying particular attention to Fibonacci clusters:
1 - $EURAUD - 4-Hour Chart:
In this chart, we are likely witnessing a corrective development in terms of Elliott Wave, with the nascence of an Expanding Triangle ("ET" with internals of 3-3-3-3-3). At first sight, one might believe that recent price action carved a high from which price would decline further to complete point-e of the ET.
However, use of the proprietary Predictive/Forecasting Model suggests that price will likely mount a final intermediate offensive to the level define as circa: 1.62468. A downward 1.618-Fibonacci extension was used to approximate the possible residence of point-e.
Although this may appear too speculative, I am simply using Elliott Wave internal A-B-C structures which have developed over the course of this correction, such that a connection of the tops is delineating divergent a-c and b-d lines, reminiscent of the ET as the closest eligible pattern.
Now, using the height of the 3-wave that defined point-a of this ET, a standard 1.618-Fib extension comes in perfect alignment with the 1.131-Fib extension derived from the entire height of this correction, calling our attention to the 1.67152 level - This is the level that we will continue to follow in the following daily and weekly charts.
2 - $EURAUD - Daily Chart:
In this daily chart, I am adding another Fibonacci cluster, using the 4-hour cluster at 1.67152, and bringing this up against yet another Fibonacci alignment generated from a much larger corrective pattern (apparently a zig-zag with 5-3-5 internals), whose height serves to define a significant 1.414 extension, as it too falls perfectly in line with 1.67152.
The relevance of these clusters cannot be over-emphasized, especially when we look at background geometries that would provide the mechanism behind the expected price action.
Hence, so far, we have contemplated a 4-Hour Expanding Triangle, allowing a transient decline to point-e as a springboard for further ascent to a daily price field in which three significant Fibonacci clusters are expected.
Now, looking at the following weekly chart, I will add my own geometry through a Geo that appears to have completed its 5-plot cycle, but may allow for a slight price excursion ("slight" on a weekly scale).
(... cont'd - See discussion thread for the remainder of the analysis ... )
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
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Twitter: 4xForecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
TradingView: www.tradingview.com/u/4xForecaster/
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.
Following are a series of chart representing a top-down analysis of the $EURAUD pair. On a fundamental basis, I have shown in other charts a probable deterioration of the $EUR, against a likely appreciation in commodity-wide class, including #gold, platinum and palladium - This should impact on positively correlated currencies, such as $AUD, $CAD, $CHF and $NZD to some extent (see these charts and analyses under my TradingView alias: 4xForecaster).
First, let's take a look at the 4-hour, daily and weekly chart, paying particular attention to Fibonacci clusters:
1 - $EURAUD - 4-Hour Chart:
However, use of the proprietary Predictive/Forecasting Model suggests that price will likely mount a final intermediate offensive to the level define as circa: 1.62468. A downward 1.618-Fibonacci extension was used to approximate the possible residence of point-e.
Although this may appear too speculative, I am simply using Elliott Wave internal A-B-C structures which have developed over the course of this correction, such that a connection of the tops is delineating divergent a-c and b-d lines, reminiscent of the ET as the closest eligible pattern.
Now, using the height of the 3-wave that defined point-a of this ET, a standard 1.618-Fib extension comes in perfect alignment with the 1.131-Fib extension derived from the entire height of this correction, calling our attention to the 1.67152 level - This is the level that we will continue to follow in the following daily and weekly charts.
2 - $EURAUD - Daily Chart:
The relevance of these clusters cannot be over-emphasized, especially when we look at background geometries that would provide the mechanism behind the expected price action.
Hence, so far, we have contemplated a 4-Hour Expanding Triangle, allowing a transient decline to point-e as a springboard for further ascent to a daily price field in which three significant Fibonacci clusters are expected.
Now, looking at the following weekly chart, I will add my own geometry through a Geo that appears to have completed its 5-plot cycle, but may allow for a slight price excursion ("slight" on a weekly scale).
(... cont'd - See discussion thread for the remainder of the analysis ... )
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
-----
Twitter: 4xForecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
TradingView: www.tradingview.com/u/4xForecaster/
-----
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Comment:
27 OCT 2015 - Chart update / Tech-Note:
Price bounced off of support as forecast; Remains intent on contra-lateral target:
David Alcindor
Price bounced off of support as forecast; Remains intent on contra-lateral target:
David Alcindor
Comment:
03 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price reached support at 1.52336 - Expecting it to recommence upswing:
David Alcindor
Price reached support at 1.52336 - Expecting it to recommence upswing:
David Alcindor
Comment:
12 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
In recent analyses, we contend with two geometries: One being the Geo, and the other being a nascent expanding triangle to which we expected to apply the ATHENA methodology.
In the chart above, I decided to simply the price field by committing to the Geo, being a much more familiar geometry than the other whose B-D line had not yet been defined.
Note the internal development of a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry pointing to a probable Point-5, and thus complete the Geo and thus defining a high-probability level of reversal.
A prop pattern was used to define the upper and lower targets, expecting a validation to occur in this order.
David Alcindor
In recent analyses, we contend with two geometries: One being the Geo, and the other being a nascent expanding triangle to which we expected to apply the ATHENA methodology.
In the chart above, I decided to simply the price field by committing to the Geo, being a much more familiar geometry than the other whose B-D line had not yet been defined.
Note the internal development of a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry pointing to a probable Point-5, and thus complete the Geo and thus defining a high-probability level of reversal.
A prop pattern was used to define the upper and lower targets, expecting a validation to occur in this order.
David Alcindor
Comment:
12 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Look out for:
1 - Unrealized reciprocal ab = cd symmetry
AND
2 - Unanswered prop pattern target at 148701.
Although this target is not generated from the Predictive/Forecasting Model, it carries a respectable probability of realization.
Instead, consider the then-support (pink arrows) to now act as resistance, eventually satisfying these geometric demands.
David Alcindor
Look out for:
1 - Unrealized reciprocal ab = cd symmetry
AND
2 - Unanswered prop pattern target at 148701.
Although this target is not generated from the Predictive/Forecasting Model, it carries a respectable probability of realization.
Instead, consider the then-support (pink arrows) to now act as resistance, eventually satisfying these geometric demands.
David Alcindor
Comment:
13 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
As expected, price was repelled by the predefined level ... Bearish forecast remains in force:
David Alcindor
As expected, price was repelled by the predefined level ... Bearish forecast remains in force:
David Alcindor
Comment:
17 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price continues to move to bearish target 1.48701, defined this past November, 12th - Keeping a close watch on this one:
David Alcindor
Price continues to move to bearish target 1.48701, defined this past November, 12th - Keeping a close watch on this one:
David Alcindor
Comment:
17 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price completes the reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, whereas bearish TG = 1.48701 target, defined on November 12th 2015, remains pending and probable:
David Alcindor
Price completes the reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, whereas bearish TG = 1.48701 target, defined on November 12th 2015, remains pending and probable:
David Alcindor
Following is a re-posting from $EUR room and ATHENA room:
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Best,
David Alcindor