justatrader

EURAUD - A fakeout or a move higher?

FX:EURAUD   Euro Fx/Australian Dollar
527 54 8
Recent Aussie weakness saw the Euro             rally furiously. Price is now back to the upper end of the price channel.
Comparing to Stochs, there seems to be a 'Hidden Bearish Divergence' in play here?

However, if price declines, 1.40505 is now a strong support level. If it holds declines, then EURAUD             could push higher. I expect this to be tested next Tuesday during RBA's meeting.

A break below 1.40505 will then see 1.37283 being tested.
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jangseohee
2 years ago
good catch man, hidden divergence ^_^
but how come my last candle is NOT a DOGGIE??
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HiTech PRO
2 years ago
After uptrend trendline bounce I think it could be a move higher afterall
EURAUD UPSIDE TARGET REACHED
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justatrader PRO HiTech
2 years ago
It could actually push higher. I do notice an eerie similarity across EURxxx, where a short term weakness is followed by a bullish outlook. 1.4177 could be achieved, but unless it breaks, I doubt if there will be any further declines. Perhaps on the RBA not cutting rates, which seems to be priced into EURAUD at the moment.
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HiTech PRO justatrader
2 years ago
Yes, I think the main question here is RBA decision on rates, that should give some insight on the further trend
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justatrader PRO HiTech
2 years ago
They won't cut. I was just going through some data (incl. minutes), which clearly points to the RBA concerned about a bubble in the housing markets. HIA new home sales high a cycle high last month (and rises since Feb rate cut). A rate cut in April would be a premature for the moment. We could see a cut maybe in June (and that could indicate that the Fed could postpone its rate hike from June to September).

Also Q2 is on average a down qrtr for EURAUD (while it is an up quarter for Euro and Aussie against the dollar). So while we will see some dips, question is of course, how much of a dip.

Fiction aside, i've been testing a new method and based on this model, EURAUD should be correcting soon to 1.39306 (let's round it off to 1.395).
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HiTech PRO justatrader
2 years ago
funny you say that rate 1.3950... see mine
EURAUD DOWNTREND CONTINUES
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justatrader PRO HiTech
2 years ago
Now that's eerie!!! Either we'll end up making quite some pips on this or end up on the losing side! 48 hours and counting! See you on the other side.
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Daily candle shaping out to be a shooting star type of candle.. still a long way to go but looks encouraging for now.
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jangseohee
2 years ago
there you go, double top with macd divergence, kaboom
running towards resistance
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justatrader PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
That's a 5min chart?
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jangseohee justatrader
2 years ago
yup
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justatrader PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Ok.. so if today's daily candle closes bearish, this EURAUD short could be a lot of fun!!
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jangseohee justatrader
2 years ago
Yup seems like the case so far
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justatrader PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Looks like this pair just doesn't want to give up its rally.
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HiTech PRO justatrader
2 years ago
Most likely trend up will continue as it appears now
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justatrader PRO HiTech
2 years ago
Did you make some decent $$'s on this one? I must admit at one point I was a bit scared of my exposure to EURAUD shorts, but today is probably my best in making quite a decent bit in a few hours. I got my trades running at BE with one exiting at 1.405, 1.40 and will leave the final position to run its course.
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jangseohee justatrader
2 years ago
Oh yeah, 250 pips ^_^
thanks mate
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1.45 looks possible at this rate.
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In terms of bearish divergence, this perfectly fits the bill. so let's see if the downtrend will continue. A dip to 1.37 will probably be a slam dunk!! But for now 1.405 looks like a big support to struggle with.
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jangseohee justatrader
2 years ago
that blue undercut resistance is just darn strong
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justatrader PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Is that a bearish flag? Also I notice a good retest of the channel break out on weekly. So next destination is the previous low (4th candle from current)
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jangseohee justatrader
2 years ago
the upper green line is the MAJOR daily channel that has been so solid for 4 times, i wont be surprise that price is going for that
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jangseohee justatrader
2 years ago
yup, 4th candle leftward from the current has the neckline on it, though a weird one
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Folks, take a look at this:
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jangseohee justatrader
2 years ago
IHS!!
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justatrader PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
I also plotted the bear flag you pointed out. So no matter how we look at it, the bigger grand daddy of support comes at 1.372. So let's round it off to 1.375. From there on, even if the IHS is disputed, it would mark a double bottom (and it is typical to see the lower end of the flag post come in as a brief support). I'm extending my tgt to 1.375 and will see how it goes from there. Technically price should fall a bit more but who knows. Interesting stuff.
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justatrader PRO justatrader
2 years ago
I'm also surprised price didn't rally to 1.45. Meaning, we could see a big bounce should 1.37 hold as support.
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jangseohee justatrader
2 years ago
Channel top(resistance) or bottom (support) is always an EMOTIONAL AREA, no doubt about it, because which ever gain the 100% upper hand, the direction is see
Finger crossed that price will rally despite looking bearish now :-)
prepared for all sorts of scenario
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justatrader PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
I'll simply manage my existing shorts. Gave me 4 days of sleepless nights, so gotta milk it to every last pip!!
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HiTech PRO
2 years ago
how about that
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justatrader PRO HiTech
2 years ago
You meant time to buy again? @ 1.39ish??
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HiTech PRO justatrader
2 years ago
No, I mean fix profit and wait for correction to re-enter
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justatrader PRO HiTech
2 years ago
oh ok.. I was rechecking H4 charts.. This is how I see it.
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1. There is bearish divergence from 1.40588 to 1.44376. This is normal. So we currently assume a correction to the uptrend is in play (because EMA's are aligned for uptrend).

2.1.40588 will then be critical. A break below that will then see the bearish divergence come into play, with Stochs making lower low on price making higher low.

3. Finally, if Stochs to make a lower low in comparison to the low from 16/03, then 1.379 (rounded off) is very possible.

So to put it simply, 1.40588 is the first downside target. And a retest to 1.43188 cannot be ruled if the longer term bearish trend comes into effect.
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jangseohee justatrader
2 years ago
monthly looks like a complete HS
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justatrader PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Chart? I don't see a 'text book' HS though.
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jangseohee
2 years ago
5min bullish divergence is not enough to give it a retracement push
i suspect there is another down to take stop loss before i goes up
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HiTech PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
very likely
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jangseohee
2 years ago
the head is shrugging towards the left shoulder
oh i call in pseudo HS
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alex.a jangseohee
2 years ago
For it to be down, 1) EUR -- weaker (very plausible -- retail sales are coming) 2) AUD stronger - http://gyazo.com/713c132d5f97e62bd6b44eecf625f1ce by MSNBC Kathy Lien's data. At this point how far EUR can go down will determine but EUR's downside is quite limited at this point ~ fairly weak enough ~ hitting the bottom channel is less probable to me.
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jangseohee alex.a
2 years ago
AUD maintain interest rate ^_^
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justatrader PRO alex.a
2 years ago
Going by recent price action. It seems the markets are jumping the gun. So regardless of how things turn out, any slight hint of weakness from AUD could see EURAUD rally again. But fundamentally, I doubt how far the rally will be sustained. Even at 2% interest rate vs. a ccy with -ve dep. rates and QE. I'll be bearish for now.. until May's RBA meeting.
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jangseohee
2 years ago
tug-o-war along the cross section of blue & green resistance
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tcas
2 years ago
May be I wrong but my target is 1,39000.
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jangseohee
2 years ago
after MASSIVE rejection
look at the price now
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jangseohee jangseohee
2 years ago
massive bear flag..if the bear channel support cant hold, i cant imagine the tumble ^_^
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justatrader PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
are you still in the trade? I am, from 1.435. Looking to aim for 1.375 and 1.35 (the +ve swaps are the icing on the cake)
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jangseohee justatrader
2 years ago
i took profit at the stopped half way, after bearish candle appeared under median line, i re-shorted it
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And I was doubting if 1.40 would be even reached. Man these moves are wild.
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jangseohee justatrader
2 years ago
going for the neckline \(^_^)/
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justatrader PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Agree. I revised my targets much lower based on this.
Week 7: EURAUD - Weekly Head and Shoulders
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justatrader PRO justatrader
2 years ago
1.315 rounded off
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jangseohee justatrader
2 years ago
it would be an abyss after that ^_^
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justatrader PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
If bear flag is valid.. then 1.3728 might offer some support, else a dip to 1.3353, which will surely act as support and push prices back to 1.3728 and then a decline lower. 1.28 looks very tempting to set TP to. Lol!!!
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jangseohee justatrader
2 years ago
i can just say, Poor EURO
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