Price has failed to break through resistance of the upper boundary of the channel/flag structure.
The second touch of this upper boundary which was seen in December 2014, and price action of this was very with a large upper wick, similar to that of last month and this current month. Thus indication a possible long term down move.
At the mentioned above, last week price created a candle.This price action can be compared to the previous touch of this line (resistance), where there was a formation.
Last week price bounced from the upper boundary of the as well as the upper boundary mentioned above on the monthly analysis, hence providing further confluence of a strong resistance and hence a further move.
The moving average are converging, showing a slowdown of momentum. A possible cross to the downside may occur soon.
Now, a possible move is for price to move down to the 0.618 fib level, which is confluent with a fourth touch of the .
A break of this channel may take price to ~1.4400 as a shorter term target. This zone is an area of previous , 200MA as well as being close to a contact point of price with the lower boundary of the channel.
Price is currently in a key zone; a level of prior . Also, price is sitting on the 200ma.
If momentum is seen (with a break of the 200ma) a short term sell can be on, targeting the lower boundary of the channel. HOWEVER, price may break through the counter . IF this does occur, and the moving averages do remain to the upside, then a long option may present itself. THEREFORE, at this moment in time, it is better to dictate its direction before entering a position in the short/mid term.
If counter breaks (along with other factors), long move may be considered.
If current support is broken ( 200MA etc), a shorter term sell may be considered.
A break of the channel will warrant a short if appropriate price action presents itself.
If price bounces off this level, there MAY be a long opportunity depending on price action.