ForceFollower
Short

EURAUD H4: Completing a steep corrective rally?

FX:EURAUD   Euro Fx/Australian Dollar
As far as I can see it, EURAUD             is about to complete a corrective rally. I find it very likely to give in under the pressure of resistance, which is spread horizontally at the level of prior lows. The rally is very steep, so it may be hard to maintain much longer, given the preceding down trend. I also find current strength of the EUR a little bit overstretched, as well as the AUD's weakness slightly overdue. So I conclude a correction down to 1.50, or even below this level, is very likely to occur.
As we've seen it, EURAUD had to reach the reaction line (or the upper median line), before starting to correct. I believe the odds are stacked in the shorts' favor now.
snapshot
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Any thoughts on the probabilities it will test your second choice in the area of 1.4800
and thus the trend line again ?
wishing you a pocket full of pips !!!!!!!!!!!!
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ForceFollower dojitrader
Hi,
Thanks! Likewise!
According to my statistical evidence, the odds of retracement, in this case, are as follows:
a) to the 23.6% level - at about 85%
b) to the 32.6% level - at about 80%
c) to the 41.6% level - at about 60%.
So, it's not as likely we'll see 1.4800 as it is with 1.4900. But it's still more than 50% - I've had more cases of price reaching such a target than not.
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