FullTimeTrader
Short

EURCAD-big double top and bearish shark

FX_IDC:EURCAD   EURO / CANADIAN DOLLAR
712 3 6
Just like the EURUSD             i think the bullish party for this pair is over.
Looking at monthly chart we see a big double top with strong bearish divergence:
snapshot

On w1 chart we have a perfect bearish shark already complete.
snapshot

Here on D1 chart:

- Channel duplication acting as resistance.
- RSI extremely overbought
- strong psycholevel 1.500 could not be taken

Use your own strategy to look for shorts.

Regards.
Nice, this one might work!
I'm short usdcad now...worth a shot too.
Thanks.
Reply
Hi indeed it has a sharp pull back and might drop even more (to ~1.44?). But one year chart shows that a golden cross between 100 MA and 200 MA has just completed (monthly chart MACD just had a bullish crossover). Five year chart shows that such a golden cross was completed in 04/2014 and so far it's becoming more and more bullish, and MACD/RSI etc. look very much similar to 02/2013, which suggests more room to go higher after a big pull back. The MACD negative divergence looks similar (but sharper) to the one in 2003/2004, and it had a similar but sharper pull back in 2015. Daily chart Elliot Wave shows that it's having wave 4 and will have a wave 5 higher than the previous wave 3 (weekly also shows uptrend with potential to reach or surpass the previous 1.74 high). Seems it has formed the big left shoulder, and is now forming the head (it seems to prefer HS pattern instead of double heads in the past). The party might not be over yet, and this deep pullback might be a good buying opportunity?
Reply
FullTimeTrader starter.starter.3
a year ago
Hello, thank for your detailed analysis. From my point of view just to make a quick analysis i think price has reached the top, the targets shown on chart are reachable. We could have some corrections also. According to my EW count price finished an WXY pattern. Fundamentally, seems oil has bottomed and will rally soon, after greek euphoria EUR remains "stable" but in deep macroeconomic trouble. Take care with too long term charts because price could reach your expected target but after many corrections. Overall bearish in this pairs.



snapshot
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