4hr Short with a 200ma break

FX:EURCAD   Euro / Canadian Dollar
235 0 0
With a confluence of resistence above the 1.26556 area, a short should be considered with a break of both the 200ma and 1.25770 support area .

To reduce your risk wait for the retest of the 200ma / prior support area . Placing a stop just above the prior support area .

Once support is broken the first profit target is the prior 38.2 fib retracement level taken from the June 29th high and August low. Notice how price really respected the fib levels.

The conflunce of resistance is listed below:

61.8 Fib retracement taken from June 29th high and August low.
38.2 Fib retracement taken from the most recent down move.
Horizontal resistance area @ 1.26556
Confirmation coming in the form of a Pin Bar 3 candles ago.

I'm looking for reasons not to trade and trading right into that 200ma is a good one.

I would like to hear what other traders think, comments always welcome.

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