LordGuineaPig

EURCHF coming price reaction levels idea (D)

FX:EURCHF   Euro / Swiss Franc
The EURCHF appears to have been in an ascending pitchfork since June 2017 and have been mostly respecting the median and the 0.5 medians as support/resistance . However, late January 2018 the Swissie began seeing strength, nudging the pair to the downside and testing the 1.0 lower median support within a week. We saw a lot of price action early February and a breakdown with price trading at and between the lower median and a possible ascending support trend line starting April 2017. Coincidentally the low of the breakdown reversed at the 38.2 fib retracement and just shy of the potential ascending support. Price action then broke up through the lower 1.0 median and returned to trading within the pitchfork .


However, since price breakdown the market may have spawned another pitchfork . Price appear to have treated the new pitchfork median as critical support and resistance ever since 2017, giving weight to the theory. Combined with new fib retracement levels, which the market looks to be respecting, we may have a couple of opportunities at play here where price will react.

We are coming into the week with some EUR focused news which, depending how the market reacts, may produce one of the following scenarios:
  • Continue to push the pair up toward this new upper 1.0 median.
  • If there’s indecision we may be in for some more range trading around the 78.6 fib level and the “old” pitchfork lower 1.0 median.
  • If the price breaks down, we might be looking at the confluence of support at 1.1600.

In whichever the case may be, good luck out there and have fun.
Comment: It looks like the market is responding to the new upper 1.0 median (blue solid) as it's intersecting with the old 0.5 lower median (green dashed). Price may either retrace as far down as the previous high of 1.18285 before hopefully continuing or break through outright. on April 18th the EUR is seeing inflation forecast to be higher but still within healthy territory, which could possibly nudge the pair to breakout if true.

If bullish view, wait for determined break to the upside and go long on the bounce.

If bearish view, look for entries in lower time frames.

Looks like the market is reacting positively to EUR strength and price has two days in a row touched the upper new 1.0 median testing resistance. Keep an eye out on lower time frames for signs of conviction in price action. For this trade to be valid we want to see acceleration in price.
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