EURGBP has been more consistently negative than EURUSD over the last few weeks for a number of reasons. The most important of these this week are significantly strong British job data than expected and the troubles plaguing Credit Suisse. Claimant count change for January was unexpectedly revised down to negative 30,300 on Tuesday while the rate of unemployment in the UK held at 3.7% against expectations for an increase.
Although various technical indicators on the chart display similar signals to euro-dollar, the focus for euro-pound is on the death cross of the 50 SMA below the 200 and the failure to break above the 100 SMA early on Wednesday morning. The strong rejection from around 88.4p might suggest further losses, but the key 50% Fibonacci retracement coincides with a fairly strong bounce from 87.5p. That might be a difficult support to break, having also been tested unsuccessfully around two months ago, so a range might establish over the next couple of days ahead of British inflation on Wednesday 22 March.
Next week’s inflation from the UK is likely to be overshadowed by the meetings of the Fed and the Bank of England, but for euro-pound in particular it’s a critical release. A decline below double digits to 9.6% as expected might suggest a bounce by the euro, but traders will also monitor the Monetary Policy Committee’s comments on Thursday next week very closely. The statement at 12.00 GMT on 23 March expected to announce a single hike of the bank rate.
Although various technical indicators on the chart display similar signals to euro-dollar, the focus for euro-pound is on the death cross of the 50 SMA below the 200 and the failure to break above the 100 SMA early on Wednesday morning. The strong rejection from around 88.4p might suggest further losses, but the key 50% Fibonacci retracement coincides with a fairly strong bounce from 87.5p. That might be a difficult support to break, having also been tested unsuccessfully around two months ago, so a range might establish over the next couple of days ahead of British inflation on Wednesday 22 March.
Next week’s inflation from the UK is likely to be overshadowed by the meetings of the Fed and the Bank of England, but for euro-pound in particular it’s a critical release. A decline below double digits to 9.6% as expected might suggest a bounce by the euro, but traders will also monitor the Monetary Policy Committee’s comments on Thursday next week very closely. The statement at 12.00 GMT on 23 March expected to announce a single hike of the bank rate.