ICmarkets

EUR/GBP: Could we be in for lower prices soon?

FX:EURGBP   Euro Fx/British Pound
21 0 1
4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• Weekly TF: Two weeks ago a spike/wick was seen just above the weekly decision-point area at 0.80328-0.79780, indicating that some of the sellers around this area have been consumed, which also likely means price is now free to hit the weekly supply area above at 0.81397-0.80809.

• Daily TF: The same spike/wick seen on the weekly timeframe , is exactly the same on this timeframe (above daily supply at 0.80328-0.80024), meaning the path north is likely clear now up to the daily S/R flip level at 0.80809 (the lower base of the weekly timeframe supply area - see above), however before price can be pushed higher, pro money will need sell orders to buy into, and at the moment this does not seem to be the case. A decline in value may well be seen down to the next fresh daily demand area at 0.78117-0.78533 which is nicely located within the weekly demand area at 0.76931-0.78623.

Until recently, trading action was confined between a minor 4hr R/S flip level at 0.79533, and a 4hr supply area above at 0.79778-0.79664.

A push below was only recently seen, imagine the amount of stops this move took out on the lower timeframes! A lot of traders were no doubt going long around there, as on the 15 minute timeframe this area of support would have appeared to be a strong buy zone. So, with this being said, a push has been seen up to a very minor 4hr supply area at 0.79661-0.79586 (within the 4hr range mentioned above), which was likely the area where pro money sellers initially made the decision to break below the temporary 4hr range (levels above).

If the sellers outweigh the buyers here, the path south looks relatively clear down to at least the 4hr decision-point level at 0.79189, but what really takes our fancy is the 4hr demand area below at 0.79037-0.79139 (pending buy order set just above at 0.79155) since from this area, the buyers consumed sellers not only around the high 0.79385, but also the high 0.79795 (marked with arrows) making this area a juicy one indeed! However, if the buyers outweigh the sellers here, another attempt to break above 4hr supply at 0.79778-0.79664 may well be seen, and if it does, price will likely fill the gap, and maybe then trade up to a sexy-looking 4hr supply area at 0.80151-0.80085, the round number 0.8 below will likely be faked past in order to reach true supply, so be aware of this if anyone is thinking of shorting this round number if/when price reaches this level.

Pending/P.A confirmation levels:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above 4hr demand (0.79037-0.79139) at 0.79155. The reason we have placed a pending buy order here is simply because the buyers consumed sellers not only around the high 0.79385, but also the high 0.79795 (marked with arrows) making this area a juicy one indeed!
• P.A confirmation buy levels (Red line) are seen just above a 4hr decision-point level (0.79189) at 0.79215. The reason for setting a P.A confirmation buy level, and not a pending buy order is simply because this level has seen a touch already indicating some of the buyers may have been consumed, thus weakening this area, hence the need for confirmation on this one.

• No Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen are seen in the current market environment.
• No P.A confirmation sell levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.79155 SL: 0.78953 TP: Dependent on how price approaches). P.A.C: 0.79215 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.
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