AdrianRaymondFX

EURGBP is a pair you should be watching in March

FX_IDC:EURGBP   Euro / British Pound
Since the summer of 2013, I've maintained a bearish stance on the EURGBP             cross as I correctly anticipated the central bank divergence theme (article in French : http://bit.ly/1AqJJ5G). Back in December, I indicated that this pair could reach £0.72 with a break of the 2012 lows. This target is almost reached, and I will be watching the euro             for the first signs of a corrective bounce around £0.725/0.7200 in March. I am aware that even with such a correction, the fundamentals will remain quite bearish , especially given that markets seem to have started pricing back in a BOE rate hike in 2016 after the quarterly inflation report published back in February. Nevertheless, I can't help but notice the 1998 and 2003 highs (£0.7025-0.7240) that was a key resistance before December 2007. I'll be focusing on short-term price action within this zone in March, and any bullish reversals on the daily chart may represent long setups to target perhaps as far up as £0.755. That said, if the anticipated correction is overall week with more of a range that sets in, I might end up coming back to the short side given the long-term fundamentals. A monthly close below £0.70 would suggest even more downside potential all the way to £0.653 (2007 lows).
I read your article in French, very good. Cheers
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Good one. Cheers
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