FX:EURJPY   Euro Fx/Japanese Yen
695 18 11
Entry = 141.045
SL = 141.768
TP = 138.422

Cheers,


David Alcindor
TradingView.com Moderator, Alias: 4xForecaster
Predictive Analysis & Market Forecasting


PS: If you liked the analysis, feel free to give it a "Thumb Up" and pass of a friendly referral to friends interested in occult market mathematics and hidden geometries. All targets generated are defined by non-price means, and confirmed by either proprietary patterns (Euclid, Janus, Great White, Deep Shark), or other well known patterns. However, we concentrate mainly on Shark, 5-0 and occasional Bats, to complement our predictive analysis and forecasting - Cheers, David Alcindor.


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Disclaimer: Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
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isomorph
2 years ago
maybe. let's put it this way: as long as price remain above 140, you'll be wrong. as long as the ichimoku cloud bottom and WPP (H4 chart) hold, you may be right. and as long as these 2 levels don't give way, then the only thing left to do is play this range. but better to do it on GBPJPY since the the range there is wider and not as narrow as the EURJPY.
Reply
muratsoydan
2 years ago
Hi David, your charts are great but you are at 'eur/jpy short' and 'aud/jpy' long, doesn't contradict a little bit? your proposition is eur weakness, jpy neutral and aud strongness?keep up the good work.
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4xForecaster PRO muratsoydan
2 years ago
Hello @muratsoydan - I very much appreciate your question and its implication.

Here is what the predictive analyses and forecasts have submitted so for:

1 - XAUUSD: Potential bullish reversal confirmation pending confirmation = neutral to bullish
2 - USDollar index: Confirms the inverse of above, also pending confirmation = neutral to bearish
3 - Nikkei: Bearish confirmation

TOTAL: USD/JPY = neutral to neutral/bearish

Now, off to the majors/crosses:

AUDJPY:
- Short term = neutral to bearish
- Mid term = neutral to bullish
- Long term = Bearish

(mitigating factor here is a prop pattern that favors bullish long-term reaction)

TOTAL = Neutral to bullish


EURJPY:
- Short term = Strongly bearish; look at current reversal at 141.020
- Mid term = Bearish; 141.953 has printed the strongest bearish defenses
- Long-term = 144.770 was a past successful target from which price has reversed; while chart remains neutral to bearish, there remains added bearish reversal confirmation to add bearish conviction to any shorting weighs.

GRAND TOTAL:

Commodity-dependent currencies (especially thru Gold expression) are favoring bullish upturn at the moment, namely: AUD, NZD, CHF and CAD - Caveat: Look at inherent rates and on-going sovereign fundamental development to best relate which might carry the most favorable outcome - I'd lean towards AUD as a strongly correlated currency relative to Gold.

USD is weakening at the moment, despite Fed and fundamental development. Not sure whether the weakness is a temporary
and directly due to Dollar versus commodity/risk driven, but the signals are what I rely upon, and the signals favor bears at the moment.

Confounding issues here is that you would expect EUR to work at the antipod of a softening USD, but at play here is a fundamentally driven JPY decline under easing domestic monetary policies.


OVERALL:

The strongest signal is indeed EURJPY, while the weakest is AUDJPY, hence the implied conflict you are mentioning. But, as indicated above, AUD is arm-wrestling JPY for market direction, and AUD might potentially be buoyed by Gold strength and USD weakness.

I hope this makes sense, as I write this ad lib during my vacation, watching KU basketball games. Again, rely on your due diligence and trading knowledge. All that I offer is based on my own rationale, and while technical talks might sound compelling most of the time, only your knowledge comfort and risk tolerance should guide the trader's reason to expose hard-earned assets to trading.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
NOTE: More signals, more analyses. More forecasts coming ...

Feel free to share my Twitter alias:

@4xForecaster


Thank you for your kind Twitter support and friendly referral through colleagues and friends.

Cheers!

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis &Forecasting

-------------------------------------
- All signals, analyses and forecasts are for educational purposes. Do your own due diligence. Use TradingChart.com to share your analyses with me or friendly traders on the site.
Reply
muratsoydan
2 years ago
Hi David, thanks for your detailed reply, yes it makes sense and I hope you are enjoying your vacation ! I just want to add because of the strong defense at 141.953 I moved sl to a bit above. And it seems today that it failed to go back to trendline coming from Feb 3rd which is a bearish signal. And If we break above 140, I can't see any significant support level until 139.200 and may add some shorts. And Nikkei's short term bearishness may help to bring down it. We'll see. By the way, cad/jpy is also coming to the end of descending triangle and testing the lows of the year and it may give a hint to the direction of jpy crosses especially against aud. But I still feel not comfortable going long aud/jpy, I'll wait for the break of aud/usd 200sma and downtrend line in aud/nzd, by the way if these things happen it may be too late to jump :). Thanks and have a nice weekend.
Reply
muratsoydan
2 years ago
Of course I mean if we break below 140, it was a hard day, sorry for that :)
Reply
muratsoydan
2 years ago
Hi David, I hope you moved stoploss a bit above and did not hit!
Reply
4xForecaster PRO muratsoydan
2 years ago
SL @ 142.067 - Unchanged. No structural break to justify move at the moment. More update coming up now ... David
Reply
JamesTeller66 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David. I wasn't aware that you moved the stop loss? Trade was entered on Friday and EURJPY peaked touched 141.88 at 8:00GMT today. Unfortunately I got stopped out :(
Reply
4xForecaster PRO JamesTeller66
2 years ago
Hi, @JamesTeller66 - The delicate nature of signaling trade is that I still have to leave it to the trader to use their one discretion and knowledge to define their trading profile (i.e.: entry, stop-loss and take profit levels). What I offer is a glimpse into how I trade, and some of the rationale that goes into trading, although admittedly, I can only reveal as much as I can without revealing my own proprietary system/methodology.

When I used to follow - or even watch live trades - in the past, I would become quite frustrated at the discrepancy between what the trader lets you in and see, and the time differential he would allow that would cause me to act with delay.

However, what I learned over time - and became forced to appreciate, without some hard labor and losses at first - was to gain independent thinking and action from everyone and everything. Now, this is not what I am telling to do right now, but something I am hinting at.

Regarding my signals, all that I provide is based on initial trade profiling, but I make no guarantee that I will not change the trade and not leave any information to that effect, mainly because each trader will likely project their own perception and assumption, based on (preferably) known tolerance of risk and money management.

Again, all the trading is purely educational, as it offers an example of rationale and trading style to traders interested in methodologies different from their own. Curiosity in someone else's style, though, should not trump or subvert the trader's original style, other than perhaps help refine it. I hope this makes a bit of sense.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
JamesTeller66 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David. Thank you for the clarification and providing the trade ideas. I generally incorporate my own analysis while following the trade ideas from other experienced traders. When there was spike in this pair, I was away from my computer and could modify my stop to 141.90 which was the last week's high.

I have looked at your previous analysis and I must say it has been spot on.
Reply
24 MAR 2014 - Chart Update:

The interim has been really good so far, on the basis of added negative divergence with RSI, which indicates a dedicated bearish strength. While price has remained within structural ranges, there has not been any compelling reason to move any of the stop-losses.

Overall, initial predictive analysis and forecast, as well as trade profile remains unchanged.

Cheers,

David Alcindor

PS: Do the due (diligence) and don't trade like I do: Plan your own trade, and trade your own plan. Always!
Reply
muratsoydan 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David, are you sure that RSI divergence is negative? I see RSI making higher lows and going upwards but price still can't break the ceiling. The same thing in MACD. I see them as bullish divergences. These are in 4H charts. https://www.tradingview.com/e/4ajY5u2u/ I am not a pro and If I am wrong, please correct me thanks.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO muratsoydan
2 years ago
@muratsoydan - What I am about to tell you still baffles 99% of traders, but here it is:

1 - BULLISH divergences are associated with a BEARISH trend continuation in price
2 - BEARISH divergences are associated with a BULLISH trend continuation in price

This is a rule established long ago by the author of RSI himself, Mr. Welles Wilder. The reason why 99.99% of traders continue to use bullish/bearish divergence (especially the few instances where it works) is because they have been inculcated by the institutional traders, who know better.

Instead, the retail trader should look for RARER instances where RSI carves a higher high while price makes a lower high (so, here look at the top of RSI and top of price, and RSI should have a rising line against a declining line in price, which would define a NEGATIVE (not bearish) Divergence.

Conversely, when RSI carves a lower low, while price prints higher lows, then look underneath the RSI and price, to see that indeed RSI defines a declining line against a rising line underneath price. In which case, you will be dealing with a BEARISH DIVERGENCE.

I have been a student of the RSI since 1997 when I started to trade. I used RSI the way everyone was taught, and only when I discovered these original rules was I able to profit from the market.

Here is an exercise I gave all of my students:
1 - Keep the bearish divergence in mind and see how often it appears in a rising trend. Draw ALL of the bearish divergences, but do not be dismayed at the fact that price keeps on rising.
2 - Keep the bullish divergence in mind, and see how often it appears in a declining trend. Draw ALL of the bullish divergences, but do not be dismayed at the fact that price keeps on falling.

I say "do not be dismayed", because the contradiction of such a core-held belief that bullish/bearish divergences are associated with reversal will often make the junior trader blind to these very frequent divergences.

The reason that divergences of this nature (i.e.: bullish/bearish) occur is that they represent pauses in the trend, but once a number of them occur, a price decompensation eventually occurs, and the institutional traders are quick to point this out as the "sign" for a reversal. So, YES, eventually after so many BEARISH divergences, a RISING price will fail and FALL, as much as after so many BULLISH divergences, a FALLING price will eventually RISE, but it has NOTHING to do with the assumed predictive nature of these divergences.

Now, in contrast, take on the other exercise:
1 - Look for the POSITIVE divergence, where a decline in RSI support is associated with a rise in price support, such that RSI would stand supported on a DECLINING line against price standing on a RISING support. See that its occurrence is much rarer. While not 100% associated with a price action that ends up rising, it most often is.
2 - Look for the NEGATIVE divergence, where a rise in RSI overhead resistance line is associated with a fall in price resistance line, such that RSI would "hit its head" against a RISING line versus price "hitting its head" against a falling line. Here too: see that its occurrence is much rarer. While not 100% associated with a price action that ends up rising, it most often is.

The analogy I teach has to do with the "Hammer" and "Shovel" analogy. If you look at it from a mechanical (moving object) standpoint, you will soon notice that:

1 - A NEGATIVE RSI sees a rise of RSI hammering over price, such that price ends up moving down like a hammered nail
2 - A POSITIVE RSI sees a decline in RSI shoveling price up, such that price ends up moving up as if shoveled by cantilever.

If the analogy does not work (I have a mechanical mind), then stick to drawing the lines:

1 - When RSI carves lower lows, see if price is supported by a rising support = POSITIVE Divergence
2 - When RSI carves higher highs, see if price is kept under a falling resistance = NEGATIVE Divergence

This lesson is worth thousands (I kid you not) and is still being taught by the only Welles Wilder student I know (I found the instruction though other sources), but it pretty much is just this simple. Here is whom teaches these lessons:
- http://www.cardwellrsiedge.com/courses.php

What I have done over the years was to discover other subtleties about the RSI, which has allowed me to define my own predictive analysis and forecasting, being able to define trend, reversal and targets WITHOUT using price at all. Weird, but true.

I hope this little lesson helps a lot.
(feel free to pass around - expect a lot of objection from many "experienced" traders too)

Cheers,

David Alcindor
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LazyBear PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
+1 Very helpful. Thanks for the detailed comment.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO LazyBear
2 years ago
You are very welcome. Feel free to circulate with the proper credit as you please.

Thank you so much for your kind comments.

Cheers,

David Alcindor, MOD

Reply
muratsoydan 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thank you David, you are a great man !
Reply
4xForecaster PRO muratsoydan
2 years ago
I am glad you appreciate this information.
Reply
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