This week’s price bounces have now tested and rejected resistance 21DMA levels ( ).
Bears resume again on "Shooting Star" occurrence at resistance of 124.445, current prices tested support at 123.55 but still below DMAs.
Despite the current price bounces 7DMA crosses below 21DMA which is a sell signal again.
So short term bulls seems absolutely exhausted as leading oscillators diverging to the previous rallies.
On a broader perspective, the current prices remain well below EMAs despite this month's attempts of bounces; major downtrend has been slipping through and bulls have tested supports at baseline (see monthly charts).
Most notably, volumes are in conformity to the major downtrend - See huge volumes on dipping prices.
Leading oscillators has been converging to the major downtrend.
with crossover has just entered into zero levels which is territory.
This month, the pair tested supported near 122.028 levels ( base & 50% Fibo levels) but we could now foresee all chances of failure swings and break below these levels.
So, we view the current price rallies as momentary gains as the major downtrend offers more shorting opportunities.
Option Trade Tips:
Capitalizing on these deceptive rallies, you decide to initiate a bull put spread at net credits when IVs are reducing which is good news for option writers.
So, go short in 3D (-1%) in the money put with positive theta if you expect that EURJPY will spike up moderately over the next near future but certainly not beyond your imagination, simultaneously, buy 2W at the money -0.5 delta put option.
Notice in this instance that the put we bought is at of the money and the put we sold is in the money with an anticipation of EURJPY could either rise or remain unchanged in next 3 days time, but there onwards slumps would be taken care by longs in ATM put and your active longs in spot FX would be protected.