ForceFollower
Short

EURJPY Trending Down

FX:EURJPY   Euro Fx/Japanese Yen
This currency pair is in a relatively strong down trend, following a modified Schiff . The EUR is still pretty weak, whereas the JPY is the strongest of the major currencies . Now that the major low to the left has been taken out, I expect to see new lows. There should be some support around 135.25, coming off the prior highs, but it can dip as low as 134.
Sam0101
2 years ago
great call force, i like ur chart as usual n there are graphical simplicity. Neverthelss the most important thing is the idea n analysis is so true !!!
+1 Reply
ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
Thanks. I do my best, hoping to make some progress every day. :) I just follow strong trends. :)
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itaskar
2 years ago
nice Piotr, are you waiting for move up to go short or you are in? I will go short somewhere on these lines, to have a good stop
snapshot
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ForceFollower itaskar
2 years ago
I'm not short yet. I'm stalking it, waiting for a better price.
I like your lines - that's where it's worth looking to go short.
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dojitrader ForceFollower
2 years ago
I was about to ask when I read itaskar 's chart and your comments ___
With EWave also pointing to the 137.50.138.00 area for a possible
short entry: As that would give us a crack below that 136.33 level and
a snap back above -- thus major support has held, and,
I guess I was wondering why we're all ignoring classical
tech analysis that says we should go long until the support is broken again ?
Thanks for your thoughts,
Good weekend to all !
+3 Reply
ForceFollower dojitrader
2 years ago
Thanks for your comment, dojitrader.
Well, I do what my strategy tells me to. I've started shorting it with very small positions. The support may have held indeed - the rally looks like a snap back up. If it keeps showing strength, I'm going to forget about new lows and I'll take profits at some retracement of the ongoing rally. As for this rally, here's how far it can get, by my reckoning:
snapshot
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itaskar dojitrader
2 years ago
I am trying to trade with the flow when I dont see any reversing pattern, For now it looks like pretty strong bullish candle and there is floor(green) which is holding from 20.may , so for me no shorts without good stop. I need to see something like here in circle
snapshot
, will manage it on 240.
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itaskar itaskar
2 years ago
btw. watching chfjpy as well because correlation.
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ForceFollower itaskar
2 years ago
I understand your choice of CHFJPY (FJ), although recently CHF has become stronger vs. EUR. So, I'd rather recommend shorting NZDJPY instead (on my watchlist). Anyway, FJ is in a bear trend and I'm bearish about it too.
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itaskar ForceFollower
2 years ago
ah so, its not about shorting chfjpy, its about confirmation. I need to see booth these pairs are doing the same. So, if eurjpy will be on resistance I will think about short, but I need to see that chfjpy is doing the same.
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pavan15589 itaskar
2 years ago
Just a thought....If JPY is in quote on both pairs, irrespective of the base currency, wont JPY show the same reaction on all the pairs its coupled with....I mean we don't have to look at charts at all, you could see all the pairs with JPY in quote doing the exact same thing....
I am not as experienced as you all, still very very new to this but in case I wanted a confirmation, I would select a cross currency that is in strong co-relation with the swing period that I trade on and keep a watch but this pair wont contain any currency in its quote or base from my trading pair...
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itaskar pavan15589
2 years ago
just an example, maybe its subjective...I like to see when correlated pairs are doing something like this(in circle)
snapshot
,
snapshot
. On booth pairs are broken R/S lines what gives me confidence that this up/down move will continue and I will watch purple lines for possible trade(not in trrade now, because is against the fork/flow). highly correlated ccys are eur/chf, good correlation is betwen aud/nzd and jpy/E-mini(not watching this).
+1 Reply
pavan15589 itaskar
2 years ago
Alright....!! Now I get it...You actually look for specific actions like those....If the correlated pairs both hold their respective structure or have almost the same retracement or extension or any such aspects, Right?... The encircled area in the two charts have a very precise action relative to each other we often don't see that on the charts.... I will look to incorporate this next time when playing structure....
Thanks by the way....:-)
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ForceFollower itaskar
2 years ago
I agree regarding the correlations. Your idea is very interesting, so keep testing it. Adding another filter (like this one) is always a good idea, because it reduces your overall risk.
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itaskar ForceFollower
2 years ago
Piotr, its not my idea, Paul Coghlan is using this, and it is working. When there are bigger differences for example in aud/usd nzd/usd, he is staying away from trading it. When booth the correlating pairs are in good R/S points at the same time, he is in.
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ForceFollower itaskar
2 years ago
That means he probably tested it. So that's good news. I'll see how it works myself.
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itaskar ForceFollower
2 years ago
Paul is using it well in his USD pairs...just asked Ben Drage(cross pairs), he said "i keep an eye on what is happening in both but basically trade the cross pair chart in front of me". In my opinion, it can be useful especially in high correlating ccys like eur/chf.
+1 Reply
ForceFollower itaskar
2 years ago
Yes, indeed. Thanks!
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pavan15589 itaskar
2 years ago
One more thing...!! Since it can be used as a confirmation and once we know market is doing exactly what we expected it to, would you capitalize on the other pair as well which you kept a watch on for correlation... That's very rewarding considering we also double the risk....
+2 Reply
ForceFollower pavan15589
2 years ago
That's a question to Ivan, but I suppose it wouldn't be good idea, since - as you noticed - you'd double the risk in correlated assets. If the other market was primarily used as a confirmation indicator, I think it should remain as such.
+1 Reply
itaskar pavan15589
2 years ago
like Piotr(FF) said, its just another filter..and it will be not smart to trade booth pairs I think, because market can change every time..why to loose on booth pairs?
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ForceFollower itaskar
2 years ago
An interesting idea, Ivan (itaskar), based on the presumption that eur and chf are closely correlated. And they are, indeed. What remains to be verified though, is see, if this kind of confirmation would give you more confidence in your original trade idea. Waiting for both currencies to align may cause a lag in your decision process. So it takes some testing to learn, if it really works to your advantage.

You're close, pavan15589, how it really works. Please also consider the fact that the JPY is currently relatively strong, so your odds of success are the highest when you bet on it against some of weakest currencies, like (currently): the NZD. the CAD or the EUR. That's why I recommended going short NZDJPY. But I would NOT recommend going short USDJPY now. :)
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ForceFollower itaskar
2 years ago
Yes, I like your strategy, I trade that way as well, except for the SL order - I'd place it higher: here I've got two strategies: either above the high to the left, or above the ultimate resistance at 140, compromising a smaller risk with a smaller reward. It's usually a tough dilemma, what to choose.
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itaskar itaskar
2 years ago
line worked perfect but without any stoploss opportunity, so i didnt catch it
snapshot
+1 Reply
itaskar itaskar
2 years ago
before
snapshot
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itaskar itaskar
2 years ago
btw, Pavan...perfect touch in chfjpy as well
snapshot
+2 Reply
ForceFollower itaskar
2 years ago
Yes, excellent analysis on your part in both cases! A pity you failed to take advantage of them. :-( Next time I recommend you allow for a wider stop... :-)
+1 Reply
itaskar ForceFollower
2 years ago
thanks Piotr...I dont wanna go above 25 pips stop, maybe there will be another chance for entry on monday/tuesday, now I have place where to put stop.
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ForceFollower
2 years ago
In case the correction continued longer, getting to higher levels, here are the resistance levels to be taken into account:
1) around 137.5
2) around 138.5
3) around 140.0:
snapshot
Reply
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