Don't get bull trapped with EUR/JPY- Wait for confirmation

FX:EURJPY   Euro / Japanese Yen
Technical Rationale: Considering previous immediate downtrend we are still bearish only considering prevailing upswings are just the speculating effects ahead of ECB meet, bearish candle forms such as long legged doji at 136.503 followed by Gravestone doji at 135.870 levels, hence it could be used as downtrend would still prevail.

As a result, both daily and monthly prices have slipped below 10DMA and currently attempting towards support at 128.05 levels.

Massive volume build ups on every price decline (see grey shaded areas).

EUR/JPY is steaming up with heaps of bearish indications by leading oscillators in addition.

Leading oscillating indicators are moving in sync with prevailing price declines (see monthly charts for RSI is directly proportionate with price line), this convergence can be attributed as bearish continuation.

Currently, RSI (14) trending near 46.2996 levels (while articulating) with downward convergence to the dipping prices.

There is a clear sign of selling sentiments as a result of overbought pressures, it alarms bears trying to take over the declining rallies as the slow stochastic noises with %D line cross over around 25 levels on monthly (current %D line flashes at 21.3687).

Most probable scenario: More downside potential towards 1st target - 129.50 and even up to 128.05 levels in medium term.

Adverse scenario: Alternatively, the pair is hovering supports around 130 regions ahead of ECB meet, if it manages to snatch any abrupt rallies then we could see its maximum potential up to 133.420.

Hedging recommendation: Contemplating any abrupt brief upswings and certain bearish swings, we recommend buying calendar spread that takes care of certain yields regardless of swings. So, short 1 lot of 3D ATM put with positive theta values, simultaneously add 2 lots of long on 2W ITM -0.65 delta puts after short side expires worthless.


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