Food4Thought
Short

EURJPY wedge breakout harmonic transition

FX:EURJPY   Euro Fx/Japanese Yen
202 4 1
The pair has managed to break out of its descending wedge formation and has reached equality targets for the pattern. In approaching current price levels the pair also formed a bearish bat and allowed T1 targets to be taken, nimble traders will have closed some and moved stops to BE, or above the 0.236 on its downside breach.

Now that price has extended higher, the next area to watch for PA triggers is located at the 1.618 XA. The area also happens to be sitting near the 0.618 lvl             . of the entire decline. This zone should offer a good area for initiating shorts, on weakness, for a correction lower before resuming the higher TF trend moves higher.

Shorts should be taken at key price levels in the region with a consideration that PA may extend to the 0.618. Queues should also sync with the Nikkei as the capital flows will ultimately determine whether shorts are viable or not; conversely, long positions may be taken on a topside breach of the 1.618 if price consolidates at the level before bursting higher.

Finally, as we are approaching the end of the year, it should be borne in mind that year end flows may see substantial repatriation of Yen funds by corporations. How strongly this will affect the spot market is anyone's guess, but should most certainly be taken into consideration.

GL
alexisbcn
3 years ago
I am a novice trader. I like very mcuh your technical analysis. I am studing how to trade Harmonic Patterns and I would really apreciate if you could explane to me how a bearish bat point C could be lower than point A. Thank you very much.
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Food4Thought alexisbcn
3 years ago
Hello, you are absolutely spot on in identifying that this is not a Bearish Bat. I did not specifically mention that this is a Bearish Bat, I merely stated that en-route to new highs, it formed a tradeable Bearish Bat, as well as a Bearish Shark that offered more of a reward.

This structure, I drew as a Bearish Cypher, but then extended the final CD leg towards the 1.618 ext.; I did this because I have traded these structures many times, and have initiated trades once an extension target of greater magnitude has been reached. In this particular case, the 1.618 is an excellent target to gun for, and offers confluence with the 0.618 of the entire decline, as well as being a previous consolidation swing high.

In light of all of this, I have labelled this idea as possible harmonic transition and not a specific animal. I hope this helps to clarify the matter for you.
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alexisbcn
3 years ago
Thank you very mauch. That help me a lot to improve my trading vision. Thanks again :-)
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