MarkFletcher
Short

Short EURJPY Daily on Moolah

FX:EURJPY   Euro Fx/Japanese Yen
154 3 1
Double top formed around 132.86 on S/R level . Got short during Monday. 2 targets: first 127.3 and second at 120.890.

Stop is at 132.868.

Stop will be moved to B/E on achieving target 1 as usual.

The thinking here is that the trend line from the Nov 2012 swing low to the Apr             2013             swing low has switched from being support to being resistance. On the last rally the resistance trend line wasn't even tested, the horizontal S/R from the weekly chart dominated instead. Meantime the alternative uptrend line was providing support but was under pressure for all of the last month or so, and on Monday it broke. Monday broke Friday's low during the Asian session, so around lunchtime Tokyo I placed a short entry at the low of the day so far. That was stopped in on Monday night.

The market may go sideways for a while with NFP on Friday; my stop is far away so I can afford to be patient.

Follow @mark27q1 on Twitter or circle me on Google+ for trade updates.
Break-even stop has been hit, trade is over for a profit of peanuts.
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Still in this trade. Today I have moved the stop to breakeven +3 early as I see yen weakness across the board this morning. The market character really doesn't feel like something that's serious about getting down to my final target. First target was missed yesterday only by a little. So both positions still on, stop moved to breakeven + 3.
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So it's not looking too clever 2 days in.

We have now closed back above the trend line whose break gave me permission to sell in the first place. Normally I would close here given we are 2 days in and closed back above, on the assumption the market will continue higher and would eventually hit my stop. That's still entirely possible with this trade, but with NFP tonight we may see some market madness that eventually returns EURJPY to a downward trajectory. My stop is still far enough away to have some chance of surviving the NFP initial spike, especially if we get some sell off between now and then. So on this occasion I am going to hold on.
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