Johnman
Short

Barring a straight sell-off. Opportunities for a timed short.

FX:EURNZD   Euro Fx/New Zealand Dollar
24 1 0
KEY EVENTS
• Tue Jan 20: NZD GDT Price Index (expected 3.6%)
• Tue Jan 20: NZD CPI             q/q (expected 0.0%)
• Thu Jan 22: ECB Press Conference ( QE             priced in at about €500bn – €750bn)

The Euro             is currently awaiting the ECB press conference and will likely stay quiet until then barring any major unexpected news. In the meantime, worse than expected data from New Zealand could give us a slightly better price for entering short ahead on Tuesday.

On the other hand, not entering ahead, a weak QE             announcement (or a disappointment from the ECB of any description) would give us a much better chance. Although we risk losing our opportunity altogether if the price runs away without us.

All in all, a rally above R3 (1.55–1.59), should it happen purely on sentiment, would be the perfect opportunity for a solid short. Along the way there are a couple of good levels as well, although current fundamentals don't favor the price surpassing R2 (1.53).
Johnman
2 years ago
RBNZ turned dovish on this one.
Reply
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