This is based more on chart reading for EURUSD and NZDUSD separately. The euro is showing much more strength.
The EURNZD chart is showing a rising 50 period bollinger band with the 4H bars consolidating above the 50sma.
The idea is that when this consolidation explodes, it is likely to move up and hit target quickly.
Risk: Reward is 1.7 approximately. So not too bad.