ROBIN
Long

EURUSD long term forecast.

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
286 0 1
I decided to take a look at the engulfing and inside bars of the last 6 months. All these setups would have been profitable trades of at least 50 pips (biggest move was 900 pips).

We now arrived at the convergence of 2 long term TL's that comes together with extremely low volatility in the FX market and serious indecision amongst traders. We see a bullish engulfing bar + 2 inside bars. If price goes above 1.3905, this could change into a huge bullish move as it breaks the long term descending TL. Retail traders are currently buying the dollar, which might be an extra indication that this pair will make an upmove. First TP would be around 1.40 as ECB states this is the level where they will take serious action.

On the other hand, if fear returns to the market (the major equity indexes drop, FOMC forecast interest rate hike,...) we can see a huge bullish dollar move that invalidates this view. However, a break below the ascending TL should need serious confirmation to turn into a big bearish move on this pair.

My current position on EURUSD             is short since 1.3808, based on insights of my Eternal Green Strategy. Due to a clear mistake in the setup produced by the EG strategy I got a 100 pip loss on a long position last week, but winners are ahead when market participation returns. My EG strategy currently produced a small long signal around 1.3850.

Trade safe and stay tuned!

Update 1 (02/05/'14): As mentioned via twitter we are still shorting this pair since 1.3791 and 1.3868. Pending long order is waiting.
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